FA and TA - Tesla heading to 1040 before OCT, 1500 soon
Updated
FA (Fundamental analysis)
Firstly, the shut downs in shanghai are allowing Giga shanghai to ramp up in production while Giga Berlin and Giga Auston are ramping up. (End of year deliveries est is over 1.7 mill as a base case)
Secondly, demand for the cars are incredible. Tesla has to increase the prices of the cars to reduce the amount of orders. They simply can't keep up with the demand (Good thing). EV credits (coming in september) will increase the already insane demand. Once factories are ramped, Tesla will bring prices back down (For every 7k drop in price, demand doubles)
Looking at the Bloomberg terminal (I will provide a link to Gary Black's tweet in the comments), every time the EPS estimates rise (Wall Street analysts realizing the company is growing), Tesla always shoots up and the EPS estimates rose while the stock fell. (Oversold imo)
In Q4, Tesla will open another factory (North American one. Likely in Canada, but could be in East USA).
In October, the twitter overhang will be lifted. The twitter shenanigans has brought FUD to the stock. It would've been valued at 1100 currently without it.
Stock Split. Tesla's options are quite pricey. This prevents retail investors from purchasing options (A contract is 100 shares. An ask of 150 would make each contract 15,000). A stock split would make these options significantly cheaper enabling a gamma squeeze to happen as the stock climbs. In addition, many brokers don't offer fractional shares. This will also allow retail investors with limited capital to purchase more shares.
Potential stock buyback. Tesla has lots of cash on hand. They are trying to spend it ramping factories and etc. If they still have significant pools of cash, they might just give some of it out as dividend (unlikely) or they could do a stock buyback. If Tesla believes that the stock has a good potential return, why wouldn't it use some of it's leftover cash to do a buyback? A buyback will reduce supply (bullish).
Earnings was great too.
TA (Technical analysis)
Firstly, I apologize for my messy chart
Triangle: There is a decently sized symmetrical triangle formation starting from May. Looking at the squeeze mob indicator, there was lots of consolidation (evident from the black dots) and the pressure released towards the upside and calming down (Bright green to dark green). It was aiming up towards 900 (which it reached).
RSI is heading up strongly making higher lows and higher highs. Volume is steady and will increase from stock split. MA crossed to the upside (I couldn't fit it on this graph) and Supertrend is green with a long way until it reaches red.
Cup and handle. There was a failed cup and hand from Jan to April. Bringing the line all the way down to the recent low, it suggests a 1040 price target.
Bull Flag. There was also a failed bull flag. Bringing that line down suggests a 1040 too.
The descending triangle from 2021 gives us a strong support and resistance around 840. The stock passed it and bounced off it several times and rebounding (bullish asf)
Strong resistance and support trendlines creating a wedge (I will also provide a link in the comments)
I wasn't able to draw these trendlines in my original chart so I drew them in the TeslaCAD chart. There is a strong trendline acting as a support from Dec 2020 with over 5 monthly candles hitting it and another one from Jan 2021 with several candlesticks using it as resistance. This wedge suggests a 2000 CAD price target (1555 USD).
I will continue to update this, but these are the strong catalysts suggesting an upside movement for the medium term (3-12 month timeline). I could care less about how it moves each minute as this is a long term play. Yes it's volatile and each drop creates a buying opportunity or a place to DCA (If you bought at a higher price).TSLA has served me well for the past 4 years.
Firstly, the shut downs in shanghai are allowing Giga shanghai to ramp up in production while Giga Berlin and Giga Auston are ramping up. (End of year deliveries est is over 1.7 mill as a base case)
Secondly, demand for the cars are incredible. Tesla has to increase the prices of the cars to reduce the amount of orders. They simply can't keep up with the demand (Good thing). EV credits (coming in september) will increase the already insane demand. Once factories are ramped, Tesla will bring prices back down (For every 7k drop in price, demand doubles)
Looking at the Bloomberg terminal (I will provide a link to Gary Black's tweet in the comments), every time the EPS estimates rise (Wall Street analysts realizing the company is growing), Tesla always shoots up and the EPS estimates rose while the stock fell. (Oversold imo)
In Q4, Tesla will open another factory (North American one. Likely in Canada, but could be in East USA).
In October, the twitter overhang will be lifted. The twitter shenanigans has brought FUD to the stock. It would've been valued at 1100 currently without it.
Stock Split. Tesla's options are quite pricey. This prevents retail investors from purchasing options (A contract is 100 shares. An ask of 150 would make each contract 15,000). A stock split would make these options significantly cheaper enabling a gamma squeeze to happen as the stock climbs. In addition, many brokers don't offer fractional shares. This will also allow retail investors with limited capital to purchase more shares.
Potential stock buyback. Tesla has lots of cash on hand. They are trying to spend it ramping factories and etc. If they still have significant pools of cash, they might just give some of it out as dividend (unlikely) or they could do a stock buyback. If Tesla believes that the stock has a good potential return, why wouldn't it use some of it's leftover cash to do a buyback? A buyback will reduce supply (bullish).
Earnings was great too.
TA (Technical analysis)
Firstly, I apologize for my messy chart
Triangle: There is a decently sized symmetrical triangle formation starting from May. Looking at the squeeze mob indicator, there was lots of consolidation (evident from the black dots) and the pressure released towards the upside and calming down (Bright green to dark green). It was aiming up towards 900 (which it reached).
RSI is heading up strongly making higher lows and higher highs. Volume is steady and will increase from stock split. MA crossed to the upside (I couldn't fit it on this graph) and Supertrend is green with a long way until it reaches red.
Cup and handle. There was a failed cup and hand from Jan to April. Bringing the line all the way down to the recent low, it suggests a 1040 price target.
Bull Flag. There was also a failed bull flag. Bringing that line down suggests a 1040 too.
The descending triangle from 2021 gives us a strong support and resistance around 840. The stock passed it and bounced off it several times and rebounding (bullish asf)
Strong resistance and support trendlines creating a wedge (I will also provide a link in the comments)
I wasn't able to draw these trendlines in my original chart so I drew them in the TeslaCAD chart. There is a strong trendline acting as a support from Dec 2020 with over 5 monthly candles hitting it and another one from Jan 2021 with several candlesticks using it as resistance. This wedge suggests a 2000 CAD price target (1555 USD).
I will continue to update this, but these are the strong catalysts suggesting an upside movement for the medium term (3-12 month timeline). I could care less about how it moves each minute as this is a long term play. Yes it's volatile and each drop creates a buying opportunity or a place to DCA (If you bought at a higher price).TSLA has served me well for the past 4 years.
Note
Cup and handle from May 5th to now has formed. This puts a new target of $1185. This target will likely reach around September.Note
In the hourly chart: MA is about to cross to the upside, Supertrend is turning green and it is currently above VWAP and bouncing off it (it has previously used it as support and for a while it has been resistance). Lastly Squeeze Mob is indicating consolidation and turning green. This is all very bullish. TSLA is ready to rocket.Note
The government just approved the EV credit. This will lead Tesla to making many more billions in profit. Furthermore, to add to the ridiculously insane demand I was talking about earlier, Tesla had to stop taking new orders on certain models until 2023 (currently the Model 3 LR). As Elon stated on twitter, the waitlist is too long and they will enable buying once they ramp the new factories (Austin and Berlin).Very bullish
Note
Stock split just messed up this chart. It has been following my path nicely. I will be making an updated idea
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