TSLA (Medium/Long term)
My opinion should not change yours !!! This can be seen as extreme bearish but I see it as a nice alarm for ultra bulls. I probably wont ever be a TSLA investor since I dont like how speculative it can be, this is simply not my style for an investment.
Chart :
Over 695 or 700 I could see TSLA breaking out to go higher, we can also see it as a breakout from longterm consolidation (volume profile on the right). It recently bounced perfectly on the 0.5 that is also a good support area (620s) and we are currently back over my favorite moving averages (20MA 50MA 100MA and 200MA).
My resume would be to long over 700 (with confirmation) and short below 620. RSI also succeeded to stay over the neutral level. I would like to see that breakout first before having a bullish swing position. If it dont, it can also look like the triangle in my recent BIDU chart.
Fundamentals + opinions (numbers can be rounded, only giving an overall idea) :
PE ratio of 353, PB ratio of 27, PS ratio of 18 says it all. No matter how you calculate the intrinsic value of the company I dont see how we can get that valuation.
First, I personally think that the valuation come from Elon Musk. He's a good talker and also good at selling his products/philosophy. He's also a star on the social media since he's really active. I dont see TSLA having that valuation with someone who simply does his job without being the trend on the social media.
Second, historically, the car industry never been much profitable. There is too much competition, the profits margin is too small. Right now, are they really selling more vehicules than the other current car manufacturers leaders ? As an example, TSLA is currently trading around 12x Ford valuation. TSLA are ahead in the EV industry but for how long ? All the other companies will switch to EV once they need too, it will add more competitors to reduce again profits margin.
Third, the EV industry can be seen as revolutionnary but we need to becareful with a revolutionnary industry, a lot of companies burn cash and arent substainable longterm. Airlines and cars were also revolutionnary when they started, out of 2000+ car manufacturers, only 2 are left. GM and F are still there but went bankrupt once.
To finish, expectations are high for TSLA and most of them are currently priced in... If they miss to deliver investor's expectations, price will come back down. Longterm, price tends to reach their fundamental value, since a lot of people expect a correction or a crash coming, you should be aware of the potential roller coaster that TSLA can be.
Note : I have no bullish or bearish positions on TSLA and I don't hate the company, I simply look at facts as an investor. Thanks for the reading and please be understanding with english errors since I'm french.
Chart :
Over 695 or 700 I could see TSLA breaking out to go higher, we can also see it as a breakout from longterm consolidation (volume profile on the right). It recently bounced perfectly on the 0.5 that is also a good support area (620s) and we are currently back over my favorite moving averages (20MA 50MA 100MA and 200MA).
My resume would be to long over 700 (with confirmation) and short below 620. RSI also succeeded to stay over the neutral level. I would like to see that breakout first before having a bullish swing position. If it dont, it can also look like the triangle in my recent BIDU chart.
Fundamentals + opinions (numbers can be rounded, only giving an overall idea) :
PE ratio of 353, PB ratio of 27, PS ratio of 18 says it all. No matter how you calculate the intrinsic value of the company I dont see how we can get that valuation.
First, I personally think that the valuation come from Elon Musk. He's a good talker and also good at selling his products/philosophy. He's also a star on the social media since he's really active. I dont see TSLA having that valuation with someone who simply does his job without being the trend on the social media.
Second, historically, the car industry never been much profitable. There is too much competition, the profits margin is too small. Right now, are they really selling more vehicules than the other current car manufacturers leaders ? As an example, TSLA is currently trading around 12x Ford valuation. TSLA are ahead in the EV industry but for how long ? All the other companies will switch to EV once they need too, it will add more competitors to reduce again profits margin.
Third, the EV industry can be seen as revolutionnary but we need to becareful with a revolutionnary industry, a lot of companies burn cash and arent substainable longterm. Airlines and cars were also revolutionnary when they started, out of 2000+ car manufacturers, only 2 are left. GM and F are still there but went bankrupt once.
To finish, expectations are high for TSLA and most of them are currently priced in... If they miss to deliver investor's expectations, price will come back down. Longterm, price tends to reach their fundamental value, since a lot of people expect a correction or a crash coming, you should be aware of the potential roller coaster that TSLA can be.
Note : I have no bullish or bearish positions on TSLA and I don't hate the company, I simply look at facts as an investor. Thanks for the reading and please be understanding with english errors since I'm french.
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