TSLA: Some more room to the downside in the near-term
Updated
Tesla has been a true market leader during up-cycles of 2013, 2019 and COVID 2020 market melt-up. It is a rare quality for a company to be able to re-invent itself (even more so several times) and be among next generation of multibaggers.
This analysis highlights several technical scenarios of price development, providing key short and mid-term areas of support and resistance that needs to be held and broken to shift odds into favour of a particular path. I don't personally plan to trade this stock until price will be able to consolidate, providing a low-risk entry point.
I can count 2023 move from Jan into Jul as an initial wave (1) in a form of a three wave A-B-C diagonal. Since Jul, price is in its final wave of correction - C - with an ideal support area at 197-174-153 zone as the end of larger wave (2) correction, or only the first wave A as per alternative yellow count.
Having a closer look on wave C of (2): I cannot consider this correction to be over, until price is bellow 242 (the 0.618% c.i-c.ii). Until price stays bellow this area, I am expecting at least one more wave (c.v) deeper into ideal support zone. The move above 242, will force me to consider the correction of (2)/A to be over and re-analyse next resistance areas to the upside.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oU95fCZp/
A few words on macro-degree structure. I consider a macro-upside potential to 700+, because the move from May 2019 lows, still looks unfinished as the five wave impulsive structure, having only 4 waves in place. The macro-move and wave structure looks quite orderly with price nicely following key resistance and support areas*.
If price moves bellow 153-128 support areas for wave (2), I will need to consider much bearish short and mid-term count being in place.
Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Author's personal multi-years trading experience convinced him that analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays and that one shall not ever argue with price.
This analysis highlights several technical scenarios of price development, providing key short and mid-term areas of support and resistance that needs to be held and broken to shift odds into favour of a particular path. I don't personally plan to trade this stock until price will be able to consolidate, providing a low-risk entry point.
I can count 2023 move from Jan into Jul as an initial wave (1) in a form of a three wave A-B-C diagonal. Since Jul, price is in its final wave of correction - C - with an ideal support area at 197-174-153 zone as the end of larger wave (2) correction, or only the first wave A as per alternative yellow count.
Having a closer look on wave C of (2): I cannot consider this correction to be over, until price is bellow 242 (the 0.618% c.i-c.ii). Until price stays bellow this area, I am expecting at least one more wave (c.v) deeper into ideal support zone. The move above 242, will force me to consider the correction of (2)/A to be over and re-analyse next resistance areas to the upside.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oU95fCZp/
A few words on macro-degree structure. I consider a macro-upside potential to 700+, because the move from May 2019 lows, still looks unfinished as the five wave impulsive structure, having only 4 waves in place. The macro-move and wave structure looks quite orderly with price nicely following key resistance and support areas*.
If price moves bellow 153-128 support areas for wave (2), I will need to consider much bearish short and mid-term count being in place.
Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Author's personal multi-years trading experience convinced him that analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays and that one shall not ever argue with price.
Note
* Notice how price finishes its advance in 1.618-1.764% resistance area of wave c.1 projected from c.2, and manages to find support around 1.00% (that matches key support areas for the fourth wave as 0.382-0.5% of wave c.3)
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