TSLA has been subject to some extreme volatility recently with shareholders hoping for good news and optimism as Elon Musk partners with Donald Trump.
At the moment, I understand that Tesla earnings can be a potential positive catalyst for the stock if good news is reported, however shareholders may be in for a larger surprise as the price action may be suggesting a potential ABC or larger WXY corrective structure is currently at play.
For this structure, I would like to see the overall 1-1 extension of the trend based fibonacci. To me, it looks as though this structure is made up of many smaller corrective patterns, which are creating a very choppy and volatile environment.
While many stocks have retraced to their "Trump pump" gap levels, Tesla is still quite a ways away, being potentially overvalued.
I will personally be looking for the 0.618 retracement on Tesla just above $440-$450 for a short trade back down to the low of $330 where the latest fomo rally began up to nearly $500.
From there, I would be very much open to taking a long trade or a longer term investment on Tesla.
Only time will tell!
At the moment, I understand that Tesla earnings can be a potential positive catalyst for the stock if good news is reported, however shareholders may be in for a larger surprise as the price action may be suggesting a potential ABC or larger WXY corrective structure is currently at play.
For this structure, I would like to see the overall 1-1 extension of the trend based fibonacci. To me, it looks as though this structure is made up of many smaller corrective patterns, which are creating a very choppy and volatile environment.
While many stocks have retraced to their "Trump pump" gap levels, Tesla is still quite a ways away, being potentially overvalued.
I will personally be looking for the 0.618 retracement on Tesla just above $440-$450 for a short trade back down to the low of $330 where the latest fomo rally began up to nearly $500.
From there, I would be very much open to taking a long trade or a longer term investment on Tesla.
Only time will tell!
Note
My thought process on this move here is a potential change of the downward trend starting to initiate. Typical gap rules in play , where price will fill the gap before continuing to follow the new trend. This drop could be a good way to reel short traders in at the low, before squeezing them higher. The move that will follow will then have little to do with fundamentals, or perhaps even the bearish news, but more so the technicals of the market as there may be too many traders shorting into the lows.
If we start closing a daily candle below the $390 level, then things will change for me. However, at the moment my bullish divergence indicators are flashing.
Note
Trump tariff news taking a toll on the market today, TSLA with the fake-out of the vwap.Would still like to see Tesla move higher as I find that news related moves tend to be retraced, similar to the index's recovering last weeks gap down on deepseek news.
To me the best short setup is still the 0.618 retracement within the 450 zone, and will wait to see how the markets develop next week.
Note
Larger time frame looks interesting. Each move of this downtrend has been rejected at the 0.618. Including a potential corrective structure with the 1-1 fib extension just below at 347 in confluence with the point of control within this entire trump pump.Perhaps it pairs with a gap down on monday, before a reversal. I will watch the nasdaq and see if we can find some support at key zones as illustrated in my other idea:

Note
If I pull the entire range, we get the same result. Based on value area theory, if we do not see a bounce at the POC, then the likelyhood is quite high for us to re-visit the value area low at $310 in confluence with the Daily level. For me , that is an extremely critical level and I would need to see a bounce in order to have faith in higher prices for tesla moving forward.
Note
Realized I made a small mistake on my Trend based fib extension as this correction is still an ABC move down , however my pin point was off by a dollar or two which results in the 1-1 being at 325. The low which we already hit. Now, I will be paying attention to the downtrend anchored VWAP for either a rejection, or a reclaim.
Note
Major resistance order blocks above, anchored VWAP for support below. Lots of people calling for $270 tesla may be disappointed if they missed this dip and forced to buy back higher, or watch it go without them. Should we have a large rejection at the upper anchored vwap resistance, I will manage risk taking profits. For now, this is likely the local lowNote
If you understand how to trade value area, then you will understand that in order for tesla to climb higher, we first need to reclaim the previous ATH value area. This means that the market had valued Tesla within a fair value range. You should notice, the Value Area Low of the previous range, is now going to be a key resistance, in confluence with the vwap and order block. So $390 will be quite a strong resistance, perhaps a make or break. However, if we reclaim both the vwap, and value area low, we could start to see a squeeze, as price begins to rotate within the previous range towards the blue line (POC) which is the most traded price within the zone.
Trade closed: stop reached
Stopped out on the drop! Will be watching the 275-300 zone next
Note
Similarly, with the recent drop into 275, this now becomes an impulsive move as we can clearly see the strength to the downside.I would assume we get a decent bounce here as we hit crucial support zones. Gamma zone above 311 will likely initiate a bit of a squeeze higher before ultimately rolling over.
I have illustrated the scenario to go hand in hand with the harmonic
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.