I stare at the chart, tracing my finger along the screen, connecting the dots—the 2020 low, the 2024 low. A rising trendline emerges, like a bridge between two cliffs, steady but not invincible.
So here we are. $172. That’s where the trendline whispers support. But is it really support, or just an illusion we want to believe in?
The Logic Behind the Line
Drawing a trendline isn’t just some artistic endeavor; it’s about psychology, repetition, and history. If enough traders see it, believe it, and act on it, then it becomes real. That’s the paradox of technical analysis. The trendline at $172? It’s not just a number—it’s where fear meets hope, where buyers might show up to defend Tesla.
But then again, what if this time is different?
Macro and Tesla-Specific Concerns
Tesla is no longer the untouchable, high-growth behemoth it once was. EV competition is intensifying, interest rates are still squeezing consumer financing, and let’s be honest—Elon’s distractions (from X to AI) don’t exactly scream "full focus on Tesla." Investors hate uncertainty, and right now, Tesla has plenty of it.
Then there's the earnings slowdown. Margins are under pressure. Price cuts have fueled demand, but at what cost? If Tesla can’t maintain its high-profit margins, the stock might deserve a lower multiple. The market isn’t rewarding growth-at-all-costs anymore—it wants efficiency, profitability, and stability.
And let’s talk about the market itself. The S&P 500 has been on a historic run, and if it corrects, Tesla—being a high-beta stock—will likely get hit harder. Tech stocks aren’t flying as they did in 2020-2021. The Fed isn’t cutting rates aggressively, at least not yet. So, does Tesla hold the line at $172, or do we see an inevitable flush lower before real buyers step in?
What’s the Play?
Alright, let’s assume Tesla does test $172. What happens then? A bounce? Sure, it could. But a strong bounce? That’s the real question. If buying pressure isn’t convincing, if volume isn’t there, then support is just a temporary floor before another leg down.
If $172 doesn’t hold, where’s the next stop? I’d be looking at $150, maybe even the psychological $140 level. That’s where things get really interesting—where long-term bulls either double down or panic sets in.
But let’s flip the script. What if Tesla does hold here? What if it bounces, regains momentum, and starts reclaiming key moving averages? Then suddenly, we’re back in play for $200, $220, maybe even beyond.
The Bottom Line
I’m watching $172 like a hawk. If it holds with conviction, I might take a shot. If it doesn’t, I’ll wait. No need to be a hero.
One thing I’ve learned in this game? The market doesn’t care about my lines. It cares about liquidity, sentiment, and the bigger picture. And right now, Tesla is at a crossroads.
Time to see which way it moves.
So here we are. $172. That’s where the trendline whispers support. But is it really support, or just an illusion we want to believe in?
The Logic Behind the Line
Drawing a trendline isn’t just some artistic endeavor; it’s about psychology, repetition, and history. If enough traders see it, believe it, and act on it, then it becomes real. That’s the paradox of technical analysis. The trendline at $172? It’s not just a number—it’s where fear meets hope, where buyers might show up to defend Tesla.
But then again, what if this time is different?
Macro and Tesla-Specific Concerns
Tesla is no longer the untouchable, high-growth behemoth it once was. EV competition is intensifying, interest rates are still squeezing consumer financing, and let’s be honest—Elon’s distractions (from X to AI) don’t exactly scream "full focus on Tesla." Investors hate uncertainty, and right now, Tesla has plenty of it.
Then there's the earnings slowdown. Margins are under pressure. Price cuts have fueled demand, but at what cost? If Tesla can’t maintain its high-profit margins, the stock might deserve a lower multiple. The market isn’t rewarding growth-at-all-costs anymore—it wants efficiency, profitability, and stability.
And let’s talk about the market itself. The S&P 500 has been on a historic run, and if it corrects, Tesla—being a high-beta stock—will likely get hit harder. Tech stocks aren’t flying as they did in 2020-2021. The Fed isn’t cutting rates aggressively, at least not yet. So, does Tesla hold the line at $172, or do we see an inevitable flush lower before real buyers step in?
What’s the Play?
Alright, let’s assume Tesla does test $172. What happens then? A bounce? Sure, it could. But a strong bounce? That’s the real question. If buying pressure isn’t convincing, if volume isn’t there, then support is just a temporary floor before another leg down.
If $172 doesn’t hold, where’s the next stop? I’d be looking at $150, maybe even the psychological $140 level. That’s where things get really interesting—where long-term bulls either double down or panic sets in.
But let’s flip the script. What if Tesla does hold here? What if it bounces, regains momentum, and starts reclaiming key moving averages? Then suddenly, we’re back in play for $200, $220, maybe even beyond.
The Bottom Line
I’m watching $172 like a hawk. If it holds with conviction, I might take a shot. If it doesn’t, I’ll wait. No need to be a hero.
One thing I’ve learned in this game? The market doesn’t care about my lines. It cares about liquidity, sentiment, and the bigger picture. And right now, Tesla is at a crossroads.
Time to see which way it moves.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.