On the Tesla chart, we are still tracking a third wave to the upside, which could be in the making from the April 2024 low.
The rally into the swing high from December 2024, where the price topped around $490, has so far unfolded as a three-wave move. In the primary scenario, I am tracking this as wave A in the white scenario, meaning it is wave A of the larger degree third wave to the upside.
Why is wave three forming as an ABC structure? It ties into the broader pattern, where the third wave is part of a larger degree diagonal. In a diagonal, the waves within waves one, two, three, four, and five are all corrective, meaning we expect a three-wave move in wave three as well.
After wave A topped in December 2024, a pullback began, and the price has now landed in the standard support area for a B wave. However, there is no confirmed low in place yet. For an early indication that a low is in, we would need a break above $279.80 (the green line). Until that happens, further downside cannot be ruled out.
If the price starts to rally over the next few weeks, we could see a test of the $350 to $379 range, with standard resistance extending up to $454.
That being said, I find it increasingly likely that the entire decline could be all of wave B, as per the blue scenario, due to the depth of the pullback. This makes the yellow scenario (where this decline was just a wave 4) less likely, reinforcing the idea that we are still following the white scenario in which the correction is deeper but remains part of a larger bullish structure.
For now, the focus remains on whether Tesla can establish a reversal signal from the current support zone, with $279.80 as the key level to watch for an early breakout confirmation.
The rally into the swing high from December 2024, where the price topped around $490, has so far unfolded as a three-wave move. In the primary scenario, I am tracking this as wave A in the white scenario, meaning it is wave A of the larger degree third wave to the upside.
Why is wave three forming as an ABC structure? It ties into the broader pattern, where the third wave is part of a larger degree diagonal. In a diagonal, the waves within waves one, two, three, four, and five are all corrective, meaning we expect a three-wave move in wave three as well.
After wave A topped in December 2024, a pullback began, and the price has now landed in the standard support area for a B wave. However, there is no confirmed low in place yet. For an early indication that a low is in, we would need a break above $279.80 (the green line). Until that happens, further downside cannot be ruled out.
If the price starts to rally over the next few weeks, we could see a test of the $350 to $379 range, with standard resistance extending up to $454.
That being said, I find it increasingly likely that the entire decline could be all of wave B, as per the blue scenario, due to the depth of the pullback. This makes the yellow scenario (where this decline was just a wave 4) less likely, reinforcing the idea that we are still following the white scenario in which the correction is deeper but remains part of a larger bullish structure.
For now, the focus remains on whether Tesla can establish a reversal signal from the current support zone, with $279.80 as the key level to watch for an early breakout confirmation.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.