Now all that all the important levels have been exposed (333, 343, 347, 352, 355). The institutional traders can go one of two ways -
1. They become desperate and buy @333.
2. Allow the sellers to break the 333 price and buy into the sell stop liquidity below 333. (i.e. target the 326 price).
We are betting on option no. 2 because the sellers have been strong in consolidation. The fear or the pressure in the sellers is quite visible. The buyers on the other hand have been very calm and patient. I'm betting on institutions being the buyers and, the retails being the sellers.
I'm betting on the price slowly being driven lower until 326 while the institutional trader accumulate and then the price recovering a little bit to the 331-333 area.
1. They become desperate and buy @333.
2. Allow the sellers to break the 333 price and buy into the sell stop liquidity below 333. (i.e. target the 326 price).
We are betting on option no. 2 because the sellers have been strong in consolidation. The fear or the pressure in the sellers is quite visible. The buyers on the other hand have been very calm and patient. I'm betting on institutions being the buyers and, the retails being the sellers.
I'm betting on the price slowly being driven lower until 326 while the institutional trader accumulate and then the price recovering a little bit to the 331-333 area.
Trade closed: target reached
I shorted @336 right after the price moved up at the open and closed @331. My fundamental idea was that the institutional traders will not let the price move up if the sellers are aggressive today. I judged the presence of the sellers based on their activity in the previous two days. But I missed the fact that they were active in the 350 to 347 zone. They wouldn't necessarily be active in the 333 zone too. I made a mistakes. The stock was desperately bought in the first half. Slowed down when it reached the 343 zone and then it was shot down. So clearly sellers were present but they waited a lot more today. I took at another short at 338 but had to drop it after I saw no selling pressure even after 5 minutes of leaving the trade open. My judgement was incorrect today. Lesson Learned - The ambiguity in the levels show only when both sides are fighting. If it is a clear buyer zone, then we might see a lot more buying activity than selling activity.
Emad Arshad Alam
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Emad Arshad Alam
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.