Tesla (bag)holders on Robinhood are at all time high :)

Updated

I should make a video so you can hear me laugh. At Tesla baggies face. But it is late here.

Robinhood = free trading "app" for complete casuals. It attracts complete noobs that look for an easy way to speculate and do not care / understand about quality of service. It's really the noob magnet.

Reminds me of something...
Oh right. Every single bear market ever.
Whales dumping. Morons buying "cheap".

Enjoy these bags. This time it's different.

This wall street cheat sheet or whatever you want to call it, just a general guide... Can look very different in some cases:

But I think for the "big stuff" with alot of participants, the patterns will be very much like that.

K that is enough examples for today. Just keep an eye on Tesla, see how it goes, next Tesla will be similar. Continuous learning. And BitconnectCoin too.

This is what institutions do btw. From what I heard + would bet 99%. + Wall street cheat sheet is their "10 commandments".
Market cycles / Elliot waves, more or less the same thing.

Note

Congratulation to Robinhood speculators that have bought the oversold dip.

Now down 25 to 50% on average. Probably buying more.

"Millennials are snapping up Tesla after its layoffs (TSLA)
Ethel Jiang
Jan. 24, 2019, 02:51 PM"
(:

Yup. According to RobinTrack they are buying more.
My brain hurts.

Note

Morgan Stanley’s auto analyst Adam Jonas, which got famous for making a *2/*3 call on Tesla in 2011 (when it was at 20-30$), is now making a bear case and sees Tesla go to $10.

He is once again being conservative. Tesla went way beyond 70$, and it will go way beyond 10$. 10 bucks a share seems low but it is still a 2 billion valuation I think. Tesla is not worth that much when you remove all the hype and hopes.

I regret not shorting Tesla when it was in the 350-400$ range.
But I don't regret it that much. I think I should start trading stocks.
Even if the indices went up Tesla likely would have remained below 400.

With CFD's and EU brokers my risk for shorting is not unlimited.

I have been looking at stocks for years and alot in the past year.
I understand them way better.
Just have to balance shorts and longs correctly.

Let's do this. Next time I see an opportunity. Not going to spend too much time looking for them thought.

Tesla investors are bleeding. TeslaMotorsportClub forum is full of bagholders.

Markets just opened and Tesla is hanging on at the lows.
I think the only thing that saved it from a new low is the S&P is up.
If it goes up Tesla will barely manage to recover or even slowly go down, if it goes down Tesla will crash tenfold. Like MoviePass.

Rekt.

Note

A lesson.

On the weekly chart:

I do not use this moving average, or any indicator at all for commodities (except precious metals).
For stocks, and crypto, and precious metals when in a bull market I think it can be useful.

"In fact, the S&P 500 has crossed the 200-day moving average 150 times since 1997. If this were a perfect signal, that would imply 75 separate market corrections.

In reality, in that time, there were only 11 market corrections when stocks fell 10 percent or worse. That means the majority of the time when the S&P 500 went below the 200-day it was a head fake, when investors sold out of the market only to buy back higher."

I don't know how this works, or if it used to but does not anymore.

He might just use it as a filter "above 200 DMA look for fundamental reasons to buy, below fundamental reasons to sell".

Not really a stock expert but for my part I think only 3 things will interest me:

1- Companies trending for decades when the stock market globally is in a bear: buy & hold.
2- Companies that are not popular and go up and down but are always profitable and not going to zero (or maybe some day they will I just don't know it): buy support.
3- Shorting bubbles / frauds when they are in the distribution phase: Tesla at 350$-390 & SL at 420 or something like that. Or maybe companies with big changes even.

Examples of 1-
The US Stock market is in a bubble and nothing is interest right now
But companies that have stood the test of time and have good numbers,
I would buy cheap + at the same time if I estimate the stock market is not way up

Of course there could be better returns looking at smaller companies.
I got a Buffet indicator that compares indices to GDP, I also need an earning per share or earning/marketcap script.

Example of 2-

Some support & resistance strategies would work here.

Examples of 3-

I totally just watched a CNBC interview of Jim Chanos to find examples for 3-
Did you know he has a secret twitter account where he trolls Elon Musk & spreads FUD? Diogenes@WallStCynic.
What does a fund manager do with his day? Just trollpost all day long & spread FUD if they are short. Nolife job.

“Crazy companies are trading at really crazy valuations now, on top of their bad businesses. That’s kind of exciting. Tesla — I mean that’s some monster valuation for a company that might be bankrupt.”

“There’s a very clear link between great episodes of fraud and the financial cycle. When we’ve had great frauds, they’ve always been at the tail end of great financial cycles,”

“And valued at almost 20x 2018 launch revenues, SpaceX is just as crazily priced as any “unicorn” out there. ”

“Grubhub is charging restaurants hidden fees: lawsuit ”

“SpaceX files lawsuit against the federal government — but asks to keep the details under wraps | Always good to be suing your biggest client. SpaceX” (lol)

I will close this update with a reminder of headlines from a few months ago

Note

PS: I forgot my favorite recent quote by Chanos

"How the F is this bitcoin nonsense being resurrected again? Are people really this stupid?"

Yes they are Jim, yes they are.

Note

Price going back down again, after Musk vicious lies to pump the market yesterday.
Not sure I get the support retest I wanted.
I could go short on a break. Don't really have experience with that kind of entry thought...

Master manipulator & sociopath top 50 richest man in the world (well maybe not anymore wink wink) Elon Musk chilling in his Gulfstream G650, while, as we have learned today, his slave employees do not even have accept to toilet paper.

Ridiculous. This fraud is going straight to zero.
Or, since the "dumb money" group seems to be an endless pit of suckers, price might rally before going to zero.
I do not have experience with things like this I want the price to retest a support and get a good entry. Otherwise I'll just watch it crash.

Note

Tesla going up slightly... Robinhood baggies are selling...
The number of robinhood baggies & tesla price is invertly correlated.
Their userbase grows so also the number of hodlers is going to have a upside bias, but we can still see how invertly correlated things are, very clearly.

I am going to repeat what I said on twitter:
Brokers & Trading educators: "The reason why most people fail is because they add to losers and not let their winners run"
Me: "Ye ok this is an extreme example to make us 'understand' but not actually what happens, I do not believe it, too ridiculous"
Robinhood: "Hold my beer"

This is unbelievable to me. I am shocked.

I was wrong about 1 thing, I thought people, having a gambler get rich quick mentality, were all going for huge risk-to-reward ratios 1 to 10, 1 to 50 even.
Because it makes sense. Buy a cheap lottery ticket and look for huge returns.
But apparently no. Baghodling never lose mentality is greater than the gambling one...

So there is a bigger edge than I thought by having big RR ratios.
You do what no one, even alot of "pros" do not want to do.
There are plenty of stories of funds that blew up, money managers that held onto losers forever all the way to zero.

I have been going for big rrs for a few months, this is what I used to do when I started. And I was getting stopped all the time yet making money, alot of it. My only regret was bull breaks on Litecoin where I got stopped 3 times almsot at the bottom and then it went up. Apart from that it was all worth it. The reason to get out is not ONLY to prevent huge losers. There is also a time factor. If you are stuck in a trade 5 months versus take 12 losses 4 BIG wins in that period, even if that baghodl trade ends up a winner you would have made more by getting out quick.

I had a period of about 9 months where I tried something else, I thought there might be an edge in that. I tried risk-to-rewards of 1-to-1.5, 1-to-2, 1-to-0.90, 1-to-10, 1-to-4, 1-to-3. I did some intraday but I don't like it so much and it is just not worth it comparatively.
Now what I go for (and this won't change for a while or at all) are risk to reward of at least 1 to 5 and at most 1 to 10 (I go for 1 to 6 usually more than this is probably too tight), and trades that take from 1 day to 3 weeks.

Pinpointing tops and bottoms like a boss (with pennants I still go for 6 RR even thought they are not tops or bottoms and idk if we can call a pullback a local bottom or what)

MrRenev

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