Massive Recovery 1/29 and thoughts for TSLA through Week
Updated
A huge surprise with a massive recovery today, ending the day with a cup-handle formation, and there is plenty of upside left for TSLA. We may even potentially close up the gap to $208; but I believe it is dependent on a few factors. Here are my thoughts on price action for TSLA this week:
Possibility #1: Run up to 0.5 Fib level $195.41 Tuesday. (Orange arrow)
Possibility #2: Choppy trading through Tuesday until FOMC (purple line) for the following reasons:
I believe possibility 2 is a bit more likely, but not much more than possibility 1. Coming off a recent ATH on S&P500 we may see a retracement overall tomorrow, but options flow on TSLA indicate to me that we are bullish for the week. There is a strong possibility that the market has already priced in rate cuts, so this may lead to a sell the news scenario (we may bounce down to $185-$190 before moving to the next level.)
As of writing, options expiring 1/30 on SPY put/call volume ratio sits at 1.18, open interest ratio at 1.47. (Figures from Barchart)
TSLA options expiring 2/2 have volume put/call ratios at 0.87, open interest ratio at 0.74. (Figures from Barchart)
S&P Futures at -0.025% in the PM. 1/29.
In the news:
Lastly, my own plan: I may or may not take a position depending how we open in the AM. From the graph, the lines you see to the left of the cup-handle were my previous possibilities I set up from last week. Friday, I was expecting TSLA to retest it's lows and I took some put positions through the weekend. (See tradingview.com/chart/TSLA/g1yuOn9G-1-25-Massive-Tesla-Red-Day-Recap-and-1-26-Prediction-From-Data/) Sold them immediately in the AM today when a strong bull signal was built, and went calls on SPY (should have gone calls on TSLA instead with that massive recovery, but hindsight is 20/20) I don't plan on holding anything through FOMC for personal risk tolerance reasons. I am a bit reluctant because TSLA has the potential to swing hard, so I may have relatively small positions. This week will be crucial for knowing if we will try for breaking through the upper channel at $240 in the medium to long term (see: tradingview.com/chart/TSLA/vE2dBB24-Shaky-long-term-trading-for-Tesla-Triple-top-dip/) -OR- we bounce back down to $180.
Those are all my thoughts, I'll update this if I see any interesting news that I find relevant to TSLA this week.
Possibility #1: Run up to 0.5 Fib level $195.41 Tuesday. (Orange arrow)
- With major earnings coming (such as MSFT/GOOG on Tuesday) I expect the entire market to go up in anticipation to positive earnings. Since TSLA just bounced off a major support of $180, TSLA is a candidate to move faster than the market (such as today with a 4.3% run vs the S&P500 under 1%.)
- We may also have a run up compounded with an anticipation to positive news from Wednesday's FOMC meeting (buy the rumor sell the news.) If given positive news (anything not already priced in) we may even have a run up to closing the gap at $208 later in the week.
Possibility #2: Choppy trading through Tuesday until FOMC (purple line) for the following reasons:
- Per Yahoo Finance: "Markets see rates unchanged in January and Predict 48% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in March." If some expectation is priced in, we may have a low volume day until further confirmation.
- Since we just hit ATH on S&P500, investors may be more reluctant in trading and we go side ways until the FOMC meeting. If nothing major comes from the FOMC meeting, we may have continued sideways trading for the rest of the week, bouncing off $188.
I believe possibility 2 is a bit more likely, but not much more than possibility 1. Coming off a recent ATH on S&P500 we may see a retracement overall tomorrow, but options flow on TSLA indicate to me that we are bullish for the week. There is a strong possibility that the market has already priced in rate cuts, so this may lead to a sell the news scenario (we may bounce down to $185-$190 before moving to the next level.)
As of writing, options expiring 1/30 on SPY put/call volume ratio sits at 1.18, open interest ratio at 1.47. (Figures from Barchart)
TSLA options expiring 2/2 have volume put/call ratios at 0.87, open interest ratio at 0.74. (Figures from Barchart)
S&P Futures at -0.025% in the PM. 1/29.
In the news:
- First Neuralink chip has been implanted for the first time. (This may bring positive views on Elon and by proxy to TSLA.)
- Capital Expenditure of Tesla may decrease from $10 Billion from current fiscal year to $8-10 Billion by fiscal 2025 and 2026 (per Yahoo Finance.)
- Two Tesla executives to sell stock, up to 281,116 and 115,500 respective shares (per Yahoo Finance.)
Lastly, my own plan: I may or may not take a position depending how we open in the AM. From the graph, the lines you see to the left of the cup-handle were my previous possibilities I set up from last week. Friday, I was expecting TSLA to retest it's lows and I took some put positions through the weekend. (See tradingview.com/chart/TSLA/g1yuOn9G-1-25-Massive-Tesla-Red-Day-Recap-and-1-26-Prediction-From-Data/) Sold them immediately in the AM today when a strong bull signal was built, and went calls on SPY (should have gone calls on TSLA instead with that massive recovery, but hindsight is 20/20) I don't plan on holding anything through FOMC for personal risk tolerance reasons. I am a bit reluctant because TSLA has the potential to swing hard, so I may have relatively small positions. This week will be crucial for knowing if we will try for breaking through the upper channel at $240 in the medium to long term (see: tradingview.com/chart/TSLA/vE2dBB24-Shaky-long-term-trading-for-Tesla-Triple-top-dip/) -OR- we bounce back down to $180.
Those are all my thoughts, I'll update this if I see any interesting news that I find relevant to TSLA this week.
Note
Looks like it's following my purple line; the one I thought would be more likely. It's looking more bearish than I expected near the end of today, will keep an eye on retesting 180.
Note
The interesting thing is that it did both: hit $195 (my Tuesday target) as well as follow the bearish prediction.Note
TSLA is getting punished. While SPY has been running today 1% up, TSLA is down and hugging the $182.75 support. Note
What a week!
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