As of April 3, 2025, TSM has broken down through key support zones following a sharp -5.19% move on elevated volume (47.57M), closing at $157.50. This move marks the deepest downside follow-through since the broader topping pattern began in Q1 2025 and puts TSM at a critical confluence of Fibonacci levels and prior support.
Key Technical Landscape
Current Price: $157.50
Recent Breakdown: Below $163.17 and $157.38 (mid-range support)
I
mmediate Support:
$153.95 (prior structure)
$141.52 – $135.33 (First Buy Zone) aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement
Secondary Support:
$127.24 – $118.03 (Second Buy Zone) and trendline intersection
Anchored VWAP from Oct 22 lies just above the second buy zone
Long-Term Support: $109.05, $98.92, $90.02, $85.33 (1.618 extension)
Levels & Momentum
Price has decisively broken below the EMA cloud, indicating loss of short- and medium-term trend structure.
EMA ribbon has turned downward, confirming momentum shift.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.618 retracement aligns directly with the $141.52–$135.33 zone — a high-probability area for a bullish response. 0.786 zone and 1.0 retracement converge with anchored VWAP and diagonal trendline support around $127–$118, forming a broader accumulation range.
Trendline Structure:
Major uptrend from late 2023 remains intact — current pullback has not violated the primary ascending channel.Breakdown below the anchored VWAP and 1.0 level would shift the long-term outlook bearish.
Scenario Outlooks
Scenario 1: Short-Term Relief Rally
Trigger: Support holds at/near $153.95 or $150 psychological level.
Move: Bounce toward $163.17–$167.54 resistance range.
Risk: Rejection from EMA Cloud or trendline underside could cap the move.
Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback into First Buy Zone
Trigger: Continued breakdown through $153.95.
Target Zone: $141.52–$135.33 (0.618 Fib + local structure)
Setup: This is the first major accumulation zone for buyers; watch for higher volume reaction and bullish candle structure.
Reclaim Path: If support is confirmed, path back toward $163.17 and possibly $175.14 is viable.
Scenario 3: Full Retest of Long-Term Support (Second Buy Zone)
Trigger: Breakdown through $135.33
Target: $127.24–$118.03 (anchored VWAP + long-term trendline confluence)
Implication: Deep retracement into prior consolidation zone from mid-2023; high conviction
long-term level
Failure Below: Would expose $109.05 and potentially as low as $85.33 (1.618 Fib extension), shifting broader structure to bearish.
Summary
TSM has entered a key retracement phase after a sustained trend and breakout failure. The breakdown below $157.38 shifts short-term structure bearish, but two strong buy zones exist below — first at the 0.618 retracement ($141–$135), and second at the intersection of historical demand and anchored VWAP ($127–$118).
Current price action favors caution on the long side until either a reclaim of $163 or a clean, high-volume reaction within one of the two buy zones. This remains a structurally intact long-term uptrend unless $118 is violated with momentum.
Key Technical Landscape
Current Price: $157.50
Recent Breakdown: Below $163.17 and $157.38 (mid-range support)
I
mmediate Support:
$153.95 (prior structure)
$141.52 – $135.33 (First Buy Zone) aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement
Secondary Support:
$127.24 – $118.03 (Second Buy Zone) and trendline intersection
Anchored VWAP from Oct 22 lies just above the second buy zone
Long-Term Support: $109.05, $98.92, $90.02, $85.33 (1.618 extension)
Levels & Momentum
Price has decisively broken below the EMA cloud, indicating loss of short- and medium-term trend structure.
EMA ribbon has turned downward, confirming momentum shift.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.618 retracement aligns directly with the $141.52–$135.33 zone — a high-probability area for a bullish response. 0.786 zone and 1.0 retracement converge with anchored VWAP and diagonal trendline support around $127–$118, forming a broader accumulation range.
Trendline Structure:
Major uptrend from late 2023 remains intact — current pullback has not violated the primary ascending channel.Breakdown below the anchored VWAP and 1.0 level would shift the long-term outlook bearish.
Scenario Outlooks
Scenario 1: Short-Term Relief Rally
Trigger: Support holds at/near $153.95 or $150 psychological level.
Move: Bounce toward $163.17–$167.54 resistance range.
Risk: Rejection from EMA Cloud or trendline underside could cap the move.
Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback into First Buy Zone
Trigger: Continued breakdown through $153.95.
Target Zone: $141.52–$135.33 (0.618 Fib + local structure)
Setup: This is the first major accumulation zone for buyers; watch for higher volume reaction and bullish candle structure.
Reclaim Path: If support is confirmed, path back toward $163.17 and possibly $175.14 is viable.
Scenario 3: Full Retest of Long-Term Support (Second Buy Zone)
Trigger: Breakdown through $135.33
Target: $127.24–$118.03 (anchored VWAP + long-term trendline confluence)
Implication: Deep retracement into prior consolidation zone from mid-2023; high conviction
long-term level
Failure Below: Would expose $109.05 and potentially as low as $85.33 (1.618 Fib extension), shifting broader structure to bearish.
Summary
TSM has entered a key retracement phase after a sustained trend and breakout failure. The breakdown below $157.38 shifts short-term structure bearish, but two strong buy zones exist below — first at the 0.618 retracement ($141–$135), and second at the intersection of historical demand and anchored VWAP ($127–$118).
Current price action favors caution on the long side until either a reclaim of $163 or a clean, high-volume reaction within one of the two buy zones. This remains a structurally intact long-term uptrend unless $118 is violated with momentum.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.