2025/02/04
Daily 4XSetUps - Hope Seems To Have Vanished In UBS Shares
“despite good numbers, expectations failed - price action bloodbath!
how deep is the pain? can we bulls get back on our feet below 30 CHF?”
On Tuesday, Europe's stock exchanges made up for some of their losses from the previous day. After investors had generally reacted with fright to US President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policy in recent days, there was now a certain sense of relief in the face of new news. Against this background, the quarterly reports of large European corporations received somewhat less attention than would otherwise have been the case. The EuroStoxx 50
SX5E closed +0.89% higher at 5,264.59 points, and gains were also recorded in Paris 
CAC40 . The British FTSE 100 
UKX ultimately lost -0.15% to 8,570.77 points, but also recovered. The SMI 
SMI ended the day with minus -0.57% to 12,475.49 points. The Swiss leading index was particularly affected by the high price losses of UBS 
UBSG and Sonova 
SOON shares.However, Trump has now suspended tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada - postponing them for a month. The 25% increase in tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been suspended for a month. It's a brutal backtrack by the US president, under pressure from Wall Street. As I tried to suggest yesterday. He wants to make economic policy for the US taxpayer and/or US consumer - but the majority on Wall Street takes that as a reason to sell stocks. Al Jazeera also provided a detailed overview today in an article under the headline: “Donald Trump’s trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China explained visually”. However, tariffs have already been imposed against China, and the leadership in Beijing responded promptly by announcing counter-tariffs on US goods; Nevertheless, there was largely calm today. China's response was described as "moderate" and also pointed out that Trump probably wanted to talk to the country. The hope therefore lies in the possible willingness of the two globally important economies to negotiate and compromise. “From a chicken war in the 1960s to a banana brawl in the 1990s, here’s a history of tariff wars the US has fought in,” from Al Jazeera.
“The pain of problems is a call to find solutions rather than a reason for unhappiness and inaction, so it's silly, pointless, and harmful to be upset at the problems and choices that come at you (though it’s understandable).”
Ray Dalio
The past 24 hours have been a prime example of how volatile markets could remain in the future - both good and bad if you bet on individual stocks, like in the case of this long UBS 4XSetUp. Because Trump is getting serious - and a certain disillusionment has set in among everyone involved who has something to do with WallStreet, directly or indirectly. Because there is now a reason to sell stocks. In my opinion, not because of Trump's tariffs - his critics also want to tie him down. No, WallStreet was and is at historic highs and is also fundamentally overpriced due to the previous Biden/Harris administration - and its green economic policy and also excessive fiscal policy. In order to fill the pockets of the US Democrats on the one hand - and on the other hand to finance goods from abroad on credit. To break it down to one sentence: The USA is the most indebted government organization in the world - and finances its prosperity (not made in the USA) with products and goods from abroad. Therefore, we (everybody who is listening to me, is reading my texts, and/or want to make some profits - and not only get educated) have to take a very close look at which individual companies, and their shares, are affected - and which are not. An example today? While car values recovered today, the financial services sector was at the bottom of the Stoxx 600
SXXP overview on Tuesday, February 4th, 2025! Our long UBS 4XSetUp also stood out among the individual stocks with a loss of -7.1%. And was the worst performer today - excuse me. And this despite the fact that the major bank and asset manager impressed with its annual results and the dividend increase. However, traders and/or investors may have expected even more. In contrast, shares in BNP Paribas 
BNP gained +4.2% after the publication of their figures. According to Goldman Sachs, the French lender's final quarter was better than expected.I don't want to fool you - hope seems to have disappeared in
UBSG shares. no - it's a disaster! A disaster - as far as price action is concerned. Just look at the chart above. And that despite good expectations. But that seems to be the curse of good deeds, as we say here in German-speaking countries in certain scenarios; because the expectations were so high - the stick for the little dog was so high that he could never jump over it. But what happens next? I don't know! For the time being, we should be satisfied if traders and/or investors send UBSG at least above CHF 30 again. And the share then establishes itself above this level in the coming days and weeks - tending to recover bullishly. But can the bulls do it? Will the bulls get back on their feet? It doesn't look good! Hope - is a good thing. But sometimes it can send every man into madness also! From this pov (point of view) - let's wait and see. Therefore, pay attention to the price action areas that I formulated, under todays price action, on this Tuesday, February 4th, 2024.CHF 29.68 : 2025/02/04 - last price action
CHF 29.57 : 2024/10/30 - Last Annual High 2024
CHF 29.10 : 2024/11/07 - Last False New High 2024
CHF 28.78 : 2024/06/03 - 2nd Annual High 2024
CHF 28.62 : 2024/03/26 - 1st Annual High 2024
CHF 28.18 : 2024/07/15 - False New High 2024
CHF 26.50 : 2024/07/31 - Upper Trendline Bearish GAP
CHF 25.68 : 2024/08/02 - Lower Trendline Bearish GAP
These are the most important price actions of the
UBSG shares. The UBSG share has shown itself to be robust and has recorded positive developments - until the end of last year 2025. The start of the new year 2025 was also promising. But the reaction of traders and investors destroyed everything above 30 CHF. That's why we remember the price action from the past year 2024 - and look at how traders and/or investors act or react in 2025. It is noteworthy that UBSG shares rose by a more than impressive +25% year-on-year during 2024. This underlines the strength of the Swiss financial giant despite challenging market conditions. However, the basic main momentum towards CHF 30 is - after the price action disaster this week - over! What do I mean by that? The GAP between 26.5 CHF and 25.68 CHF has to be defended for the time being. The best timing should be a trend reversal above 26.45 CHF until the end of this 1st quarter 2025! Why? Because we can then still argue in the form of a midterm upward trend since the annual low in August 2024. If 1st quarter 2025 low will stay above the 4th quarter 2024 low of 26.25 CHF - like 3rd quarter 2024 low with 22.53 CHF also. Which from today's perspective doesn't look like it - quite the opposite. The chart looks miserable! Or? That's why we bulls should be satisfied if the price action creates something like a turnaround during this 1st quarter 2025 - even above the 4th quarter 2024 low of 26.25 CHF.----------------------------------------------------
CHF 35.00 : 2025/12/31 - Target Price
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CHF 29.68 : 2025/02/04 - last price action
CHF 31.68 : 2025/01/21 - Entry Price
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CHF 25.00 : 2025/12/31 - Stop Price
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Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron
“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in
DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.