UGAZ - Sleeping with the enemy
Updated
It looks to me we had started the bottoming process in UGAZ .
Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and on August 5 we broke below 11.69$ and started to recover on the next day .
The weekly chart of NatGAS last week printed a hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend. This week we have the follow and the weekly swing.
Two weeks ago UGAZ had a record volume.
And what is more interesting is the COT number of NatGas.
The numbers on 2019 July 23
The open interest is 1.310.300 .
It's quite high but I have seen higher numbers than this. There were 1.600-1.700.000 in bullish periods.
The large speculators are heavily short with 191.423 contracts. (190k long, 381k short) The commercial net long position is 160.735 which is extremely bullish , and what is more interesting is the long contract number.
The long contract number is: 642337. There was only 2 time when the long contract number was higher than this in the last 10 years:
2019.05.14. : 654.311, but this time the short contract number was quite high 609.089 so the net long commercial position was only 45.222.
2018.09.18 : 660.776, and this time the short contract number was 605.712 so the net long was only 55.064.
Look what started in 2018 September:
Natty almost doubled...
This time we have a nearly all time high in commercial long contract number and as commercials already covered many shorts (we have only 481.600 short - remember last Septemeber this number was 605.712) we have a 160.735 net long commercial long contract...
The numbers on 2019 July 30
Open interest 1.342.656 (+32.000)
Large specs long: +23.776
Large specs short: +32.138
Large specs shorts increased by 8362 contracts
Commercials:
Net long contracts increased by 5914 from 160.735 to 166.649. The blees rating is 100 what is very bullish. I have seen blees at 100 for weeks with price not moving or dropping slowly.
But.........!!!!
Long contracts: 668.966.
THIS IS ALL TIME HIGH. The commercials in the past never ever had 668.966 long contracts. And the blees rating is at bullish territory.
I’m sure the commercials know something what we don’t. If they are long with that amount of contract number I want to be with them.
The numbers on 2019 Aug 6
Open interest 1.375.410 (+32.750)
Large specs long: +118 ( Almost the same)
Large specs short: +414 (Almost the same)
Commercials:
Net long contracts increased by 1218 from 166.649 to 167.867 .
Long contracts: 668.966, increased by 14.638.
THIS IS NEW ALL TIME HIGH. Again.
They are preparing for a big rally.
Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and on August 5 we broke below 11.69$ and started to recover on the next day .
The weekly chart of NatGAS last week printed a hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend. This week we have the follow and the weekly swing.
Two weeks ago UGAZ had a record volume.
And what is more interesting is the COT number of NatGas.
The numbers on 2019 July 23
The open interest is 1.310.300 .
It's quite high but I have seen higher numbers than this. There were 1.600-1.700.000 in bullish periods.
The large speculators are heavily short with 191.423 contracts. (190k long, 381k short) The commercial net long position is 160.735 which is extremely bullish , and what is more interesting is the long contract number.
The long contract number is: 642337. There was only 2 time when the long contract number was higher than this in the last 10 years:
2019.05.14. : 654.311, but this time the short contract number was quite high 609.089 so the net long commercial position was only 45.222.
2018.09.18 : 660.776, and this time the short contract number was 605.712 so the net long was only 55.064.
Look what started in 2018 September:
Natty almost doubled...
This time we have a nearly all time high in commercial long contract number and as commercials already covered many shorts (we have only 481.600 short - remember last Septemeber this number was 605.712) we have a 160.735 net long commercial long contract...
The numbers on 2019 July 30
Open interest 1.342.656 (+32.000)
Large specs long: +23.776
Large specs short: +32.138
Large specs shorts increased by 8362 contracts
Commercials:
Net long contracts increased by 5914 from 160.735 to 166.649. The blees rating is 100 what is very bullish. I have seen blees at 100 for weeks with price not moving or dropping slowly.
But.........!!!!
Long contracts: 668.966.
THIS IS ALL TIME HIGH. The commercials in the past never ever had 668.966 long contracts. And the blees rating is at bullish territory.
I’m sure the commercials know something what we don’t. If they are long with that amount of contract number I want to be with them.
The numbers on 2019 Aug 6
Open interest 1.375.410 (+32.750)
Large specs long: +118 ( Almost the same)
Large specs short: +414 (Almost the same)
Commercials:
Net long contracts increased by 1218 from 166.649 to 167.867 .
Long contracts: 668.966, increased by 14.638.
THIS IS NEW ALL TIME HIGH. Again.
They are preparing for a big rally.
Note
We moght be starting the surge out of the ICL.Note
Good chance that the short squeeze is starting.Note
If you can catch the bottom in UGAZ 100% gains just can happen in 2-3 weeks.
Note
3$ up to 22$ . That’s 100%.Note
Last year 100% was a piece of cake. It rallied 500%...
I was unable to sit that out.
Note
+10% again todayNote
The exact bottom was at 11$. Those who went all in there are now close to 100% in a month.Note
Now you know why I said you need to get in. There is simply no pullback in Natgas.Note
The 200SMA stopped Natty.The pullback is quite severe. It might be the point where one can add to the position in UGAZ.
Note
I know it’s hard to press the buy button , if it was easy everyone was making money.
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