It’s been a while since we covered the UK 100, but it feels like recent moves and the fact there is a Bank of England (BoE) rate decision next Thursday (August 7th) means it warrants some extra attention.
For much of 2025 the UK 100 has been the under achiever when compared to other European indices, but things have changed slightly in July as a result of the breakout above the previous all-time high at 8909 (more on this below in technical update) which has led to multiple record peaks all the way up to the most recent one registered on July 28th at 9177.
This up move has been aided by bullish technical momentum, a weaker GBPUSD exchange rate, which can add support to the index given that UK 100 companies are multi-national, earning over 60% of their revenue outside of the UK, and increased expectations for a BoE rate cut of 25bps (0.25%) at their next rate meeting on Thursday August 7th.
Now, looking forward, before traders get ready for that BoE meeting, they must contend with the challenges presented by President Trump’s trade policy and two key US economic data releases that could impact sentiment towards the UK 100 into the weekend. The first piece of data is the US PCE Index inflation print, released later today at 1330 BST and the second is tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls update at 1330 BST.
Once traders have more clarity on the outlook for global trade after President Trump’s August 1st tariff deadline has passed, alongside the fresh insight into the current path of US inflation and the health of the labour market provided by these two pivotal pieces of economic data, their preparation can begin for a potential 25bps (0.25%) rate cut in the UK, as the market expects and the accompanying commentary from BoE Governor Bailey in the press conference on whether more cuts could be in the pipeline across the remaining months of 2025.
Technical Update: Assessing the Current Uptrend
Since posting a low of 7525 on April 7th it has been a positive period of trading for the UK 100 index, a move that has seen a near 22% advance. As the chart below shows, except for the decline down to 8692 on June 26th, this has been an almost uninterrupted phase of price strength, as a positive pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows has materialised.
Of course, there is no guarantee that this type of positive pattern will extend and continue to see new all-time highs posted, but traders may be anticipating further attempts at upside price extension, especially while support below current price levels remains intact.
So, with this in mind, let’s look at what could be the relevant support and resistance levels that might influence trader sentiment over upcoming sessions.
Potential Support Levels:
While Monday did see a new all-time high posted at 9177, a price sell-off then materialised to register a low for the day at 9060, but with support being found at this level, it might be suggested this now represents a higher low within the positive trend and as such, is potentially now the first support focus, as the chart below shows.
Traders may find it useful to monitor how 9060 performs as a support on a closing basis, as if it were to give way over coming sessions, a more extended phase of price weakness may result. Such downside support breaks could then see the focus shift to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June 26th to July 28th strength which stands at 8990, possibly even the 50% level at 8933.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Having been capped by the July 28th high at 9177, the UK 100 index may now need to see successful closing breaks above this level to suggest a continuation of the recent positive price trend.
Successful closing breaks above the 9177 high, may be an indication of continued price strength, opening potential for moves to the next possible resistance at 9253, which is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, even 9335, the higher 200% extension level.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
For much of 2025 the UK 100 has been the under achiever when compared to other European indices, but things have changed slightly in July as a result of the breakout above the previous all-time high at 8909 (more on this below in technical update) which has led to multiple record peaks all the way up to the most recent one registered on July 28th at 9177.
This up move has been aided by bullish technical momentum, a weaker GBPUSD exchange rate, which can add support to the index given that UK 100 companies are multi-national, earning over 60% of their revenue outside of the UK, and increased expectations for a BoE rate cut of 25bps (0.25%) at their next rate meeting on Thursday August 7th.
Now, looking forward, before traders get ready for that BoE meeting, they must contend with the challenges presented by President Trump’s trade policy and two key US economic data releases that could impact sentiment towards the UK 100 into the weekend. The first piece of data is the US PCE Index inflation print, released later today at 1330 BST and the second is tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls update at 1330 BST.
Once traders have more clarity on the outlook for global trade after President Trump’s August 1st tariff deadline has passed, alongside the fresh insight into the current path of US inflation and the health of the labour market provided by these two pivotal pieces of economic data, their preparation can begin for a potential 25bps (0.25%) rate cut in the UK, as the market expects and the accompanying commentary from BoE Governor Bailey in the press conference on whether more cuts could be in the pipeline across the remaining months of 2025.
Technical Update: Assessing the Current Uptrend
Since posting a low of 7525 on April 7th it has been a positive period of trading for the UK 100 index, a move that has seen a near 22% advance. As the chart below shows, except for the decline down to 8692 on June 26th, this has been an almost uninterrupted phase of price strength, as a positive pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows has materialised.
Of course, there is no guarantee that this type of positive pattern will extend and continue to see new all-time highs posted, but traders may be anticipating further attempts at upside price extension, especially while support below current price levels remains intact.
So, with this in mind, let’s look at what could be the relevant support and resistance levels that might influence trader sentiment over upcoming sessions.
Potential Support Levels:
While Monday did see a new all-time high posted at 9177, a price sell-off then materialised to register a low for the day at 9060, but with support being found at this level, it might be suggested this now represents a higher low within the positive trend and as such, is potentially now the first support focus, as the chart below shows.
Traders may find it useful to monitor how 9060 performs as a support on a closing basis, as if it were to give way over coming sessions, a more extended phase of price weakness may result. Such downside support breaks could then see the focus shift to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June 26th to July 28th strength which stands at 8990, possibly even the 50% level at 8933.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Having been capped by the July 28th high at 9177, the UK 100 index may now need to see successful closing breaks above this level to suggest a continuation of the recent positive price trend.
Successful closing breaks above the 9177 high, may be an indication of continued price strength, opening potential for moves to the next possible resistance at 9253, which is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, even 9335, the higher 200% extension level.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.