Long/Short Strategy in oil.

Updated

There is an anomaly in the UK to US oil ratio. It is almost 3 std away from its 100-day simple moving average. This means that UK oil is undervalued relative to the US counterpart. At this situation, shorting US oil and buying UK oil with the appropriate position sizing ( such that every percent move will give the same profit/loss) is sensible.

Trade active

After 11 days, USOIL and UKOIL gained 2.07% and 4.10% respectively. Since we shorted USOIL and bought UKOIL our net gain till now is 2.03% percent. But since the ratio is not still normal, I am willing to wait a little more.

Trade closed: target reached

When we opened this position: UKOIL = 71.16 (long) , USOIL = 63.38 (short).
Now , since ratio is normalized, it is reosanable to close the position and prices for oil are 68.68 and 58.63 in respectively. Calculating the percent profits, we got -3.485% for UKOIL (since it was long position) and +7.493 for USOIL (since it was short position). And our Net profit is (excluding fees) +4.01 % .

mustafa_a

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