Oil is currently fundamentally short. demand for oil is lacking for this time of year and the US rig count is currently at its highest since 2014. the supply-demand factor is coming into play here.Last night we had another build in the API report, and today we have the EIA report out at 15.30 GMT. Last week the EIA had an unexpected build, since then we have been consolidating, I am expecting another build in oil stock today.
I would be watching out for the FED aswell, if there is no rate hike, that may be a signal for a lack of confidence in the current growth outlook, the fed rate hike probability is currently at 62% I have put the stop just above the consolidating range,@ 49.15 with a 2% account risk on this trade. The current ATR is 1.302so I would definitely expect a dollar swing potentially on the EIA reports later today.
I will update with a take profit later on this week once we get the next move for direction.
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