Short

Brent wti short

Updated

Shorting oil, based on analysis of past weeks, oil is failing to go higher. Also, I'm ICT trader.
Entered Brent on 111.495 average

Trade active

Still holding a little bit beyond my stop. Looking at price reaction and while brent is still under 113.13 I may be OK, still trusting higher tf idea. However, I do have a scenario where brent would visit 114.25 for a short first

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Since I know that price took a dive just to lure me in and get my buystops at 112.85, it was not going to get them. Also, Brent made what I call a windbreaker pattern, so, still holding, let's see what happens when I get back at BE, I think it may just fall through to positive

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Now when brent gets back to 112.23 i have to see how it reacts to -OB mitigation. If it easily continues lower I know I'm still right

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Also keeping an eye on brent wti divergence a lot

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Seeing how wti is going down ahead of brent on the 3 mn tf is helping.

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I have to say at this point that I have been scoping this oil short past three weeks or so, I feel quite a big dump is coming, that is this short

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Crap, it did bounce at the 112.20 level, just as I hoped it wouldn't. I may be in trouble.

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Analysed futures some more, I'm keeping this short over weekend, I still trust it.
Especially after looking at Harbour ULSD oil

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Put a stop in at..Well Im not saying they might see it

Trade active

Held over the weekend, still feel confident about this trade, it's coming back now, it may not even get to 114.4. Just have to be patient. Keeping the shorts

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So that was the 114.25 level, run as expected. I like the reaction there

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I do feel it is possible it will get there once more 114.30, around NewYork open ,
up to 114.8 max, and then we will see down moves. But this could be it, already.
But it would be interesting to see if Americans get a chance to get in on this

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mon 11:10 utc. Soo, NY 7:00 got 114.24 as well. Nothin unexpected. Note the big sell again there..

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Note how I already mentioned 114.25 in the second line of this post

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mo 13.06 utc. NYO agreed with my idea. both oils dropping now, from 114.25 2 hours earlier. It did so by making a OTE short into a nice -OB on the 3 mn

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utc 13.20 Well that's a nice core dump oil pulled there, just as expected

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Mon UTC 14:38 approaching my short BE level from friday, at 111,49 . Holding on to my 4H idea, it's reacting as I expected.

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i expected 112 to give a bounce. i dont like it, but i have to get through it, it just takes patience.

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still aiming for 104.4 in a couple of days

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ok, i swear, if usoil touches 111.07 this thing will crash like a log

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tuesd 10:00 utc. Brent made a classic sell setup "buystops into -OB" this morning. Now consolidating around 113 for 1.5 hour. It will continue lower anywhere from now to in 1,5 hour I think. I am not scared and confident, but it takes patience.

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11:50 utc tuesd. Brent at 113.95 and usoil took obvious buystops for a NY open sell setup. Should be going down from here.

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ok, wti finally at 111 like i said two lines back, let's see what this does

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When i said wti 111 I really ment 110.89. It responds sharply downwards, which is nice.

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Brent 104.5 here I come

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tuesd utc 10:35 NY 11:34 : I whish I had waited for 114.45 which I had been eyeballing all this time. It would have been a razor sharp entry. However, it is now coming my way, tonight i'll be back at BE i guess. being under water from friday is no fun.

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Man I'm turning into a skeleton with cobwebs.... this thing takes forever to come down

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Wednesday NY 10:47 17 minutes aftr Eia. It's starting to come down after it nearly took my stops. It is now important that it keeps going. it needs to get through the +OB red 4H candle at 113.7 that would be good. Usoil has diverged weaker and is so far back in the range it will probably take the sellside of the range which is great.

Trade closed: stop reached

Crap, too bad after all this waiting. I'm not doing High TF again, I've seen many nice trades in smaller tf on oil that I now didn't participate in.

JayPositano

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