2025/02/17 - 8th Calendar Week
Daily 4XSetUps - Bulls & Bears Fight Is In Full Swing In UKOIL
“the erroneous breakout attempt seems to be confirmed this month!
is there still hope for the bulls? should I resolve my position? stay long?”
Our Dax
DAX resumed its record hunt today, Monday, February 17, 2025. After a small setback on Friday, our leading German index initially took some momentum before climbing above 22,700 points for the first time in its history. Later in the afternoon it briefly cleared the hurdle of 22800 points and ultimately went out of today's trading session with a premium of an impressive +1.26% to 22798.09 points. And the European EuroStoxx 50 
EUSTX50 also continued its recent rally with a record high on Monday. Our Eurozone's leading index rose to 5524 points, leaving its record of around a quarter of a century behind. At the close of today's trading session, the EuroStoxx 50 EUSTX50 was still trading at 5519.83 points, +0.5% higher than on Friday. The Swiss SMI 
SMI also gained +0.3% to 12875.08 points. And the British FTSE 100 
UKX also rose today by +0.4% to 8768.01 points.Traders and/or investors seem to be betting on Europe - after the DXY
DXY is likely to confirm a medium-term trend reversal this week, with EURUSD 
EURUSD also likely to rise. In addition, everyone is also all-in when it comes to a good outcome to the trade conflicts between the USA and other countries - me too. Donald Trump will fix it - sooner or later, faster or slower. There is also still hope for a solution to the Ukraine war. A good article was published on "How Trump's dealmaker is shaping U.S. foreign policy" on AXIOS, by Alex Isenstadt, Barak Ravid, and/or also Marc Caputo. Nevertheless, defense stocks remain in high demand, especially our German Rheinmetall 
RHM - which should be worth an almost historic €1000. As the western states of Europe increasingly realize that they will have to invest significantly more money in their defense capabilities. Overall, the environment for European stocks EUSTX50 STOXX50 remains favorable. Institutional traders and/or investors seem to be paying more attention to our continent, as the US stock market DJIA 
SP500 
NDX is now considered quite expensive. And the current US administration around Trump, with foreign policy, the US budget, and/or even the US foreign trade balance, still has several problems to solve - which are likely to be solved sooner or later, more or less! But it almost seems that the bearish trend reversal in the DXY DXY will be confirmed this week - including EURUSD EURUSD . And that European stocks could develop better than American stocks for a while. How high? How long? I don't know! Maybe we'll find out next weekend that it was just a false breakdown in DXY ? So these conclusions would then of course also dissolve!“Listening to uninformed people is worse than having no answers at all.”
Ray Dalio
While on the one hand I am currently rather skeptical about the stock market due to the fundamental valuation, such as the mean reversion model "As of September 30, 2024, the S&P500 is currently trading 71% above its modern-era historical trend value, (about 2.0 standard deviations), indicating that the market is Strongly Overvalued", I think when it comes to commodities, we are currently experiencing the peak! Why? Look at the charts - it has been bullish parabolically since the beginning of 2022, right, because of the Ukraine conflict and/or green economic policy (which makes everything essential for life more expensive even because of green political ideology). Trump and the US Republicans are now at the levers of power in the USA - and they are already delivering in less than a month. Get out of the Green New Deal, promote oil production in the USA, and/or act as a peacemaker between Ukraine and Russia. If we look in the historical rear-view mirror from now and/or also into the future from today, we can assume that the green political wave - which brought us, in our so-called West, stagflation, i.e. economic downturn and inflation, including militaristic Keynesianism, is over - the bullish commodities price action era. Nevertheless, I run our UKOIL 4XSetUp alongside the short COCOA 4XSetUp - both with their respective target price and/or stop price. Because of course I can be wrong about the analysis and/or the corresponding bearish valuation. So think about it yourself - analyze, evaluate and then decide (long, short, nothing to do).
$92.14 : 2024/04/12 - Annual High 2024
$87.92 : 2024/07/05 - 1st Highest High After AH 2024
$82.35 : 2024/08/12 - 2nd Highest High After AH 2024
$81.12 : 2024/10/07 - Bullish Intraday High +3.89%
$76.41 : 2024/10/08 - Bearish Low Of -4.51%
$76.08 : 2024/11/05 - November 2024 High
$75.26 : 2025/02/17 - last price action
$74.85 : 2024/12/31 - December 2024 High
$70.89 : 2024/12/06 - December 2024 Low
$70.74 : 2024/11/18 - November 2024 Low
The battle of bulls & bears for the downtrend line is in full swing this February 2025! And it doesn't look good - basically for commodities, for the reasons I tried to formulate earlier. Be that as it may, at least the weekly low of $74.14 from the week before last, on Thursday, February 6th, 2025, held. Because if that price action area doesn't hold, could it go down towards $70 even faster? Which I hope not - but I don't want to make promises that I can't keep. Who wants to unwind this long UKOIL? Can do it! I'm (still) letting it run...
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$88.00 : 2025/06/30 - Target Price
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$76.19 : 2025/01/06 - Entry Price
$75.26 : 2025/02/17 - last price action
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$70.00 : 2025/06/30 - Stop Price
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Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron
“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in
DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.