US 10Y Breakout
Updated
Recently USTs moved a lot lower as yields continued to push higher on inflation fears and hawkish guidance and communication from Fed. With investors and traders focusing on the 3.5% before any significant correction in stocks.
However with the recent push hitting 3.23%, US stocks plunged sparking global risk off sentiment. As such USTs found support from safe haven flows.
Technically, price is getting squeezed in with a resistance at 97.87 with rising lows. Price will break either way
A) price breaks upside - for this to play out general risk off sentiment will remain adverse, with stocks moving lower. targeting $98.70 28SEP high.
B) If price holds the resistance and continues in this downwards trend back towards OCT lows at 96.90. If this was the case would hold the final part of position for a further push to the downside. Fundamentally, stocks would bounce and global risk sentiment would improve... maybe the catalyst for this scenario is strong US earnings this week coupled with strong GDP growth advance reading on Friday.
Both trades offer good risk to reward... Personally I favor option B, continuation of the downwards trend but have no problem getting long on a confirmed break above the resistance. Will wait for a breakout before taking any action
However with the recent push hitting 3.23%, US stocks plunged sparking global risk off sentiment. As such USTs found support from safe haven flows.
Technically, price is getting squeezed in with a resistance at 97.87 with rising lows. Price will break either way
A) price breaks upside - for this to play out general risk off sentiment will remain adverse, with stocks moving lower. targeting $98.70 28SEP high.
B) If price holds the resistance and continues in this downwards trend back towards OCT lows at 96.90. If this was the case would hold the final part of position for a further push to the downside. Fundamentally, stocks would bounce and global risk sentiment would improve... maybe the catalyst for this scenario is strong US earnings this week coupled with strong GDP growth advance reading on Friday.
Both trades offer good risk to reward... Personally I favor option B, continuation of the downwards trend but have no problem getting long on a confirmed break above the resistance. Will wait for a breakout before taking any action
Trade closed: target reached
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