Watch US-Treasuries for a countertrend rally
Updated
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Buy the rumor, sell the fact´s.
The fed has announced three hikes in 2017 an the projection for the fed funds rate is 2,99% in 2020.
All bad news for T-Bonds are well known now and any supriese short term based might be on the upside.
Usually i do not trade countertrends because i follow the trend only. If this idea might be right than US-Treasuries might see a short term recovery last for some weeks.
I follow up this change in Yields to make sure that the Stockmarkets get the expected tail wind to go further and higher. Thisfore the focus is on stockmarket support by falling yields and not the T-Bonds themselves.
I never would buy a falling knife even i need to put ---> now ---> a "long" bias here to follow this idea.
Buy the rumor, sell the fact´s.
The fed has announced three hikes in 2017 an the projection for the fed funds rate is 2,99% in 2020.
All bad news for T-Bonds are well known now and any supriese short term based might be on the upside.
Usually i do not trade countertrends because i follow the trend only. If this idea might be right than US-Treasuries might see a short term recovery last for some weeks.
I follow up this change in Yields to make sure that the Stockmarkets get the expected tail wind to go further and higher. Thisfore the focus is on stockmarket support by falling yields and not the T-Bonds themselves.
I never would buy a falling knife even i need to put ---> now ---> a "long" bias here to follow this idea.
Note
Fed's Lacker says more than three rate hikes likely needed in 2017Source: investing.com/news/economy-news/fed's-lacker-says-more-than-three-rate-hikes-likely-needed-in-2017-448401
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By Jason Lange
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates more than three times next year and faces challenges in gradually cooling off the U.S. economy, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Friday.
"If we get behind, it's hard to really calibrate," Lacker said during a panel discussion in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The U.S. central bank raised its target range for rates by a quarter of a point on Wednesday and projected three more hikes next year.
Lacker, who did not have a vote but participated in the Fed's policy meetings this year, said the U.S. economy would likely receive some fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration.
He said the Fed would still be able to raise rates gradually, but perhaps not as slowly as is expected by the majority of policymakers. The Fed raised rates only once in 2016, which followed a single rate hike last year.
Before the two hikes, rates had been held near zero since 2008 to nurse the economy back from recession.
Lacker said he will be looking out for signs of rising inflation given the apparent strength of the labor market, but that it would likely be a couple of years before policymakers know if they waited too long to raise rates in 2016.
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.There is more "bad news" ...
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But what is this chart (candle stick) is telling you?
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.The German Ifo Index: Higher than expected
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The Ifo Index is now close to break above a five year high. For bonds in general news like this pushing yields higher. But nothing happens like this today. An other bad news for bond - but yields are declining.
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I am watching this closely. If ever yields starts to go down the algos will not ignore this and stockmarkets usually go up.
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.US T-Bonds rising, yields falling
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Euro Bund Future: ---> up.
930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_792801349a5fa890aca1b8587ad8e498.png
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Euro Bund Future: ---> up.
930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_872a93dc682428a04e89f72223b7494c.png
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Euro Bund Future intraday: Rocket like straight up.
930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_59b0405ea6a2c2e52e1e5ff1f26a221f.png
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US 10-Year, intraday, 15m chart.
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US 30 YT: Set up is not that bad ....
930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_1336068a9f318cfc0a6cc618ff57e821.png
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Euro Bund Future: Rocket straight up.
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Euro Bund Future: up and up and up ....
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US10 YT Yield falling ...
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For me it looks like the set up for an other up move for stockmarkets is ready - and it looks alos it needs a bit time if you might see any reaction.
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US 30 YT: Weekly Reversal Pattern likely930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_40859cda4d4bfa0ac5a8ddd73ee9d6f7.png
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Euro Bund Future: Rocket Straigh Up930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_58867fa1d01c20ca952b90e292ae4cff.png
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.Triangle: Watch out if there is any kind of break to the upside and expect the final leg "up".
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30 YT Yield: Weekly reversal pattern likely930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_11cccf4c576142b7befbbd19d78f2bb8.png
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Funds buy fewest U.S. 10-year notes at auction since 2014Economy1 hour ago (Dec 22, 2016 04:25PM ET)
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Large investment managers bought the fewest U.S. 10-year Treasury notes at an auction since November 2014, while they purchased nearly the same amount of 30-year Treasury bonds as they did in November, Treasury data released on Thursday showed.
Their latest purchases occurred prior to the Federal Reserve's expected decision on Dec. 14 to raise interest rates by a quarter point to a target range of 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent.
Fed policy-makers hinted they might raise interest rates as many as three times in 2017 if the U.S. jobs market improves further and inflation moves closer to its 2 percent goal.
Longer-dated Treasury yields had reached their highest levels since September 2014, propelled by bets of faster growth and inflation from fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration.
The U.S. Treasury Department awarded investment funds $7.839 billion of the $20 billion in the 10-year note auction it offered on Dec. 12, which was the lowest amount since November 2014.
This compared with the $9.205 billion of 10-year note supply it awarded to this group in November.
The 10-year notes were sold at a yield of 2.485 percent, the highest at an auction since September 2014.
Investment funds bought $7.389 billion of the $12 billion 30-year bonds offered on Dec. 13. This compared with $7.935 billion the prior month, according to Treasury data.
The 30-year bonds were sold at a yield of 3.152 percent, a level not seen since September 2014.
Overseas investors, another major group of holders of U.S. government debt, bought $4.077 billion of the latest 10-year supply, which was the most they bought a 10-year auction since August. They purchased $3.018 billion in 10-year notes in November.
investing.com/news/economy-news/investment-funds-buy-$7.839-billion-10-year-note-in-december:-u.s.-treasury-449511
Foreign investors bought $925 million of 30-year bonds, down from $1.668 billion the prior month and the least since September.
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A breakt of this resistance will cause a spike in US-T-Bonds. If ever this might occur than expect a spike in all major stockmarkets as well. The set up for this spike is already there a we discussed this issue now for almost one week.930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_40c0ce95ad29107f36446cfe7fbf2621.png
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30 YR US T-Bonds:Watch now:
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US30 YT T-Bond Future: Break and more room to the upside.
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Trade closed: target reached
I expected a kind of counter trend rally and we got it. Before new years eve it´s time now to close this trade and to be free any new direction starting by January 3rd.Trade closed manually
Note
This long-trade was opened at 94´28´´7 and closed at 96´00´2. This is a net gain of more than a full point.
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This ---> trading idea ---> long was opened at 94´28´´7 and closed at 96´00´2.This is a net gain of more than a full point.
It was not a real trade. I do not trade counter trends if ever not neccessary.
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