US100 – Weekly Technical Outlook
Week ending: 06 June 2025
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📊 Big Picture Summary:
The NASDAQ 100 is still in a larger uptrend, but it’s facing resistance at the 22,000 level. Rejection there has triggered a short-term pullback. As long as price holds above 21,000, the bullish structure remains valid. Below that, we risk a deeper correction.
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🕰 Multi-Timeframe Snapshot:
• Weekly: 21,488 | Small up-bar | Higher Low > prior | Re-testing February supply
• Daily: 21,472 | Long upper wick | Higher High | Rejected 22k supply
• 12H: 21,474 | Outside-bar pullback | Expanding | Closed into 0.382 Fib
• 4H: 21,474 | Large bear bar | Higher Low | Lands on 100 SMA
• 90M: 21,474 | Momentum flush | Lower Low | Tags 0.618 Fib + trendline
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📈 Trend & Structure Analysis:
• Weekly: Strong uptrend with rising SMA stack; price above Ichimoku cloud. As long as 21,000 holds, pullbacks are buyable. Key support: 20,350–19,140.
• Daily: Uptrend intact but overextended. Rising wedge structure broke at 22k, risk of pullback to 21,070 or 20,750.
• 12H: Bullish while above 21,160, but channel loss warns of potential dip to 21,000.
• 4H: Rising wedge break confirmed; testing 100 SMA. Needs to reclaim 21,700 to resume strength.
• 90M: Bearish flush with momentum reset. Needs quick reclaim of 21,630, else risk of continuation to 21,300.
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📊 Momentum & Flow:
• Weekly RSI: 58 | MACD + | CMF +0.08
• Daily RSI: 62 | MACD – | Bearish divergence developing
• 12H RSI: 55 | MACD –
• 4H RSI: 44 | MACD – | Hidden bullish possible
• 90M RSI: 35 | MACD –
Interpretation: Higher timeframes show strength but momentum is cooling off. Lower timeframes show bearish pressure, but it looks corrective, not a trend reversal—unless 21,000 fails.
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📉 Volatility Overview:
• Weekly: Mild expansion, %B at 0.66
• Daily: Expansion pausing, %B from 0.93 → 0.75
• 12H: Post-squeeze contraction
• 4H: Mean reversion phase
• 90M: Lower-band flush, ready for new drive
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📍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 22,200–22,900: Weekly + Daily supply zone (strong resistance)
• 21,804–21,718: Intraday bear OB (90M)
• 21,661–21,627: Bull OB on 90M – key battle line
• 21,468–21,396: 4H order block + Fib cluster
• 21,130–21,000: Major 12H support + rising trendline
• 20,750–20,420: Strong Daily demand zone
• 18,306–17,800: Weekly macro support
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🔥 Confluence Hotspots:
• 22,200 – Multi-timeframe supply, channel top = strong sell zone
• 21,660 – 90M bull OB + Fib 0.382 = minor support
• 21,468 – 4H Fib + wedge retest = neutral
• 21,130 – 12H OB + trendline + 100 SMA = major support
• 20,750 – Daily demand + 200 SMA = deeper buy zone
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🧠 If / Then Logic:
• If 90M closes above 21,660 + 4H prints HL → Bull continuation
• If price ranges 21,660–21,350 for 24h → Expect pause
• If 90M closes below 21,350 → Bearish extension likely
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🎯 TradingView Alert Grid:
• US100 crosses 22,200 → “Weekly supply breached – reassess bias.”
• US100 crosses 21,804 → “Intraday bear OB reclaimed – review short bias.”
• US100 crosses 21,660 → “Primary bull trigger activated – watch for long setups.”
• US100 crosses 21,000 → “Critical support broken – full re-analysis needed.”
• US100 crosses 20,750 → “Testing demand – reassess buy zone.”
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🎲 Scenario Odds:
• Breakout above 22,200 → 25%
• Range between 21,800 ↔ 21,000 → 50%
• Dip below 21,000 then reclaim → 25%
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✅ Final Summary:
The trend is still bullish at the macro level, but we’re in a corrective pullback. As long as 21,000 holds, this remains a healthy reset.
Watch 21,130 for long setups, and 21,660 as the first reactivation trigger for upside.
If 21,000 fails, brace for deeper demand tests at 20,750 and possibly 18,800.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.