US2Y Treasury Yield vs Gold
The correlation between the 2Y & gold indicates that when the US2Y peaks, there is a US recession & gold rallies to new highs subsequently after.
** 1 = Peak in US2Y (1989) did not see a rally in gold because gold was depegged from the USD in the mid 1970's.
2 = Peak in US2Y (2000) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.
3 = Peak in US2Y (2007) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.
4 = Peak in US2Y (2020) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.
Speculation
5? = Do we see a continuation of the opposite correlation between the US2Y & Gold when the US2Y peaks?
I believe so. However, I see two scenarios for gold if & when the US2Y peaks.
Scenario #1: Gold rallies to new highs after the peak in yields
Scenario #2 (Base Case): After peak in US2Y, Gold rallies to tests previous high & fails to make new highs.
** 1 = Peak in US2Y (1989) did not see a rally in gold because gold was depegged from the USD in the mid 1970's.
2 = Peak in US2Y (2000) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.
3 = Peak in US2Y (2007) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.
4 = Peak in US2Y (2020) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession.
Speculation
5? = Do we see a continuation of the opposite correlation between the US2Y & Gold when the US2Y peaks?
I believe so. However, I see two scenarios for gold if & when the US2Y peaks.
Scenario #1: Gold rallies to new highs after the peak in yields
Scenario #2 (Base Case): After peak in US2Y, Gold rallies to tests previous high & fails to make new highs.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.