The US inflation and jobs data shaped investors sentiment during the previous week, where 10Y US Treasury yields eased as of the end of the week. The US inflation remains relatively steady and in line with expectations, with 0,3% increase in June or 2,7% y/y. The producers price Index was holding at 0% in June, while the University of Michigan inflation expectations also eased to 4,4% for the year and 3,6% for a five years inflation expectations. June Retail Sales surprised the market with a 0,6% increase for the month.
At the start of the week, 10Y yields reached their highest weekly level at 4,49%, and took a downturn during the second part of the week. The lowest weekly level reached was 4,41% on Friday. As US macro data remains relatively robust, the current market expectations for a rate cut in July are almost diminished. Traders now expect any rate cuts to be delayed to September or later. As per CME FedWatch Tool, odds for September rate cut slipped from 70% down to current 50%. As the week ahead does not bring any currently significant macro data, it could be expected that also 10Y Treasury yields could have a relatively calmer week. It will be used for digesting current macro data and to gear up for the last week of July, when the next FOMC meeting is scheduled.
At the start of the week, 10Y yields reached their highest weekly level at 4,49%, and took a downturn during the second part of the week. The lowest weekly level reached was 4,41% on Friday. As US macro data remains relatively robust, the current market expectations for a rate cut in July are almost diminished. Traders now expect any rate cuts to be delayed to September or later. As per CME FedWatch Tool, odds for September rate cut slipped from 70% down to current 50%. As the week ahead does not bring any currently significant macro data, it could be expected that also 10Y Treasury yields could have a relatively calmer week. It will be used for digesting current macro data and to gear up for the last week of July, when the next FOMC meeting is scheduled.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.