US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 23-27 (UPDATED DAILY)
Geopolitical event
Early Monday in Asia, US equity futures fell and oil prices surged following US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, prompting a risk-off sentiment that saw Asian equities decline and the dollar strengthen against major currencies. The US Treasury market faced pressure as investors anticipated heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with some expecting a flight to safety that could increase demand for Treasuries and push yields lower. However, concerns over potential oil supply disruptions and rising inflation risks could elevate real yields, potentially pressuring Treasury prices. Analysts suggest that while Treasuries may see initial safe-haven buying, sustained oil price spikes could complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook, impacting Treasury yields. The uncertainty surrounding Iran’s response and the risk of further escalation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, may continue to weigh on the Treasury market as investors reassess global economic implications.
Economic Releases for the week myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Technical outlook
For the monthly we maintain to be constrained within the previous month’s range as long as we don’t see any break from the range I will call the monthly range sideways. Weekly I would like to see a break below 4.316% to be bullish otherwise sideways. A break below 4.316% I will be looking at previous month low as a target. For the daily I would lie to wait how the market digests the ongoing Iran strike by the US for direction. But a break below 4.344% could be a bullish sign for me.
Geopolitical event
Early Monday in Asia, US equity futures fell and oil prices surged following US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, prompting a risk-off sentiment that saw Asian equities decline and the dollar strengthen against major currencies. The US Treasury market faced pressure as investors anticipated heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with some expecting a flight to safety that could increase demand for Treasuries and push yields lower. However, concerns over potential oil supply disruptions and rising inflation risks could elevate real yields, potentially pressuring Treasury prices. Analysts suggest that while Treasuries may see initial safe-haven buying, sustained oil price spikes could complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook, impacting Treasury yields. The uncertainty surrounding Iran’s response and the risk of further escalation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, may continue to weigh on the Treasury market as investors reassess global economic implications.
Economic Releases for the week myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Technical outlook
For the monthly we maintain to be constrained within the previous month’s range as long as we don’t see any break from the range I will call the monthly range sideways. Weekly I would like to see a break below 4.316% to be bullish otherwise sideways. A break below 4.316% I will be looking at previous month low as a target. For the daily I would lie to wait how the market digests the ongoing Iran strike by the US for direction. But a break below 4.344% could be a bullish sign for me.
Note
US 10Y Technical Outlook June 24Overnight
The Iran-Israel conflict, intensified by Iran’s retaliatory strike on Al Udeid Air Base, fuels global market uncertainty. U.S. Treasury markets face competing pressures from safe-haven demand and inflation risks tied to potential oil price surges and domestic policy uncertainties, such as tariffs. Iran’s restrained response, with advance warnings and no casualties, indicates a desire to avoid full-scale war, but escalation risks persist. Investors should track oil prices, Federal Reserve statements, and diplomatic progress, including ceasefire developments, to gauge the conflict’s impact on Treasury yields.
Economic Release June 24 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Technical outlook
Base on price action I’m expecting market to target 4.291% also watching 4.262%. But continue to monitor possible shift on Geopolitical events and policies that could affect the market. If you are not sure, I’d suggest staying away.
Note
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Technical Outlook – June 25, 2025Overnight Update
On June 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.31%, a seven-week low, following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments signaling potential monetary policy easing, including a possible July rate cut, due to readiness to address labor market weakness. Other Fed officials, Waller and Bowman, also suggested near-term rate cuts, despite the Fed maintaining steady rates for the fourth consecutive meeting. Markets now anticipate two rate cuts by year-end, with a 25% probability of a third. Meanwhile, ongoing Middle East tensions between Iran and Israel have not disrupted Persian Gulf oil tanker traffic, easing concerns about energy supply disruptions and inflation.
Daily Technical Outlook
Yesterday, we noted, “Based on price action, I expect the market to target 4.291%, while also monitoring 4.262%.” The 4.291% target was reached but did not close below this level. After three consecutive days of declining yields, I expect yields to consolidate today within the previous day’s range. If the yield fails to close above the 50% level of the previous day’s range, I anticipate a continuation of the downward move toward 4.262%.
Note
US 10Y Technical Outlook June 26Overnight
U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly on Wednesday, with the 10-year note at 4.305% and the 2-year at 4.716%. Investors are awaiting PCE inflation data, which may affect when the Federal Reserve cuts rates. Markets estimate a 61% chance of a September rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. A $70 billion five-year note auction saw weak demand, initially pushing yields up to 4.331%. The U.S. Treasury plans to keep current auction sizes for coupon-bearing securities through October, with possible increases for longer maturities later. The dollar weakened, and stock markets closed with mixed results as investors await more economic data.
Technical Outlook
To summarize how price moved yesterday we saw that yield tapped below 4.285% Tuesday’s low but did not close through after reaching a high of 4.336% closing within Tuesdays range. Today, I am expecting market to test Wednesdays high of 4.336% and/or a consolidation within Wednesday’s range. Also continue to watch possible policy and geopolitical news that may affect the market.
Note
US 10Y Technical Outlook June 27Overnight
U.S. Treasury yields declined on Thursday as markets reacted to weaker-than-expected labor data, raising expectations for earlier Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 255,000, exceeding economists’ forecasts of 240,000, signaling a cooling labor market. This data, combined with a revised lower GDP growth estimate of 0.1% for the first quarter, intensified speculation that the Fed might cut rates as early as September to support economic growth. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments, emphasizing the need to monitor economic indicators closely amidst tariff-related inflation risks, further supported market anticipation of monetary easing. Consequently, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.25%, reflecting investor demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty.
Daily Technical Outlook
Yesterday, I was expecting a technical correction or a consolidation but my expectations did not form instead yield pushed lower to 4.25% closing through Wednesday’s low so for today I am expecting price to continue bullish watching Thursday’s low of 4.24% tested and if the week closes through it, I will be now looking at the daily swing low of 4.124% as the next resistance to be targeted inline with the weekly outlook. Monthly the yield is now trading below the 50% of May’s range looking bullish in price as well.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.