US 10Y Technical Outlook for the Week May 26-30, 2025
Market Recap: Week Ending Friday, May 23, 2025
U.S. Treasuries surged early after President Trump’s X post proposing a 50% tariff on the EU, citing stalled trade talks, sparking a flight-to-safety amid growth concerns and tariff uncertainty. The 10-year note yield fell from 4.54% to 4.45%, and the 30-year bond yield dropped from 5.04% to 4.98%. Markets stabilized after a White House official clarified to CNBC that the remark was negotiating leverage, with no actions implemented. Treasury Secretary Bessent, in a Bloomberg TV interview, downplayed rising yields, suggesting they reflect stronger growth expectations tied to the reconciliation bill. Treasuries ended the holiday-shortened week positively, with yields lower across the curve. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.8% to 99.13.
Economic Calendar myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
The following high-impact U.S. news events are expected to influence financial markets during the period of May 26–30, 2025:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 10:00 AM EST. This index measures consumer sentiment, which significantly impacts USD currency pairs and shapes market expectations for consumer spending and economic growth.
Wednesday, May 28, 2025, the Federal Reserve will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM EST. These minutes provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and interest rate outlook, significantly influencing USD valuation and overall market sentiment.
Thursday, May 29, 2025, two key economic indicators will be published. At 8:30 AM EST, the second estimate of Q1 GDP growth will be released, serving as a vital measure of economic health and influencing investor confidence and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Simultaneously, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported, reflecting labor market conditions and impacting USD strength and the broader economic outlook.
Friday, May 30, 2025, several significant reports will be released. At 8:30 AM EST, the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, will be published, driving expectations for interest rate decisions and significantly affecting USD and financial markets. At 9:45 AM EST, the Chicago PMI for May will provide insights into regional manufacturing activity, influencing market sentiment. Finally, at 10:00 AM EST, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May will be released, shaping expectations for consumer spending and impacting USD currency pairs.
Technical
Weekly
Following my technical rule I’m expecting previous week low of 4.43% to be targeted while watching 4.382%-4.412% as a possible bounce zone.
Daily
For daily targets I’m watching 4.448% as a possible target of the day and the previous week low of 4.43%. It is also good to note that we are on a possible zone where yield could bounce back. On the high side look at 4.541% Friday high as a possible support.
Watch out for possible news that could affect the market.
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Market Recap: Week Ending Friday, May 23, 2025
U.S. Treasuries surged early after President Trump’s X post proposing a 50% tariff on the EU, citing stalled trade talks, sparking a flight-to-safety amid growth concerns and tariff uncertainty. The 10-year note yield fell from 4.54% to 4.45%, and the 30-year bond yield dropped from 5.04% to 4.98%. Markets stabilized after a White House official clarified to CNBC that the remark was negotiating leverage, with no actions implemented. Treasury Secretary Bessent, in a Bloomberg TV interview, downplayed rising yields, suggesting they reflect stronger growth expectations tied to the reconciliation bill. Treasuries ended the holiday-shortened week positively, with yields lower across the curve. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.8% to 99.13.
Economic Calendar myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
The following high-impact U.S. news events are expected to influence financial markets during the period of May 26–30, 2025:
Tuesday, May 27, 2025, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 10:00 AM EST. This index measures consumer sentiment, which significantly impacts USD currency pairs and shapes market expectations for consumer spending and economic growth.
Wednesday, May 28, 2025, the Federal Reserve will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM EST. These minutes provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and interest rate outlook, significantly influencing USD valuation and overall market sentiment.
Thursday, May 29, 2025, two key economic indicators will be published. At 8:30 AM EST, the second estimate of Q1 GDP growth will be released, serving as a vital measure of economic health and influencing investor confidence and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Simultaneously, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported, reflecting labor market conditions and impacting USD strength and the broader economic outlook.
Friday, May 30, 2025, several significant reports will be released. At 8:30 AM EST, the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, will be published, driving expectations for interest rate decisions and significantly affecting USD and financial markets. At 9:45 AM EST, the Chicago PMI for May will provide insights into regional manufacturing activity, influencing market sentiment. Finally, at 10:00 AM EST, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May will be released, shaping expectations for consumer spending and impacting USD currency pairs.
Technical
Weekly
Following my technical rule I’m expecting previous week low of 4.43% to be targeted while watching 4.382%-4.412% as a possible bounce zone.
Daily
For daily targets I’m watching 4.448% as a possible target of the day and the previous week low of 4.43%. It is also good to note that we are on a possible zone where yield could bounce back. On the high side look at 4.541% Friday high as a possible support.
Watch out for possible news that could affect the market.
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Note
US 10Y Daily Technical Outlook May 28Overnight
U.S. Treasuries saw consistent buying interest yesterday, starting at Asian session as markets reacted to reports of Japan potentially reducing long-dated bond issuance and President Trump's decision to postpone a 50% EU tariff until July 9 for trade
negotiations. Long bonds drove the rally, supported by a satisfactory $69 billion 2-year note auction, a robust May Consumer Confidence Index showing lower 12-month inflation expectations, and a 0.4% rise in the U.S. Dollar Index to 144.25.
Daily Outlook
As expected, yesterday’s possible targets were tapped, the 4.448% and the 4.43% although the yield barely closed the Friday low which would give me a bias for rates to go further lower.
For today I’m expecting a consolidation day with an eye on 4.505% possible target. If price continues to rise further, I’m looking zone of 4.382-4.412% to hold. Please refer to daily calendar for a possible catalyst.
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Note
Daily Technical May 29As mentioned yesterday I was expecting price to consolidate inside the Tuesday’s range. As of this writing yield already breached the upper range of 4.505%, with a gap and the next possible target would be 4.541%
Note
Daily Technical UST 10y May 30Overnight
Fed’s Daly Comments: Daly supports two 2025 rate cuts if labor market stays strong and inflation falls, but risks vary. She prioritizes inflation, favoring restrictive policy to maintain price stability. No labor market weakness or policy tradeoffs noted; current rate hold is deliberate, with businesses stable.
Trump Tariff Reprieve: A federal appeals court paused a ruling threatening Trump’s tariff agenda. The administration will defend its trade policies at the Supreme Court and explore alternative tariff authorities. Legal uncertainty may impact global trade and Trump’s leverage.
U.S. Treasuries weakened overnight after the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled against President Trump's authority to impose reciprocal tariffs. Losses were later offset in the cash session, with the 10-year note yield peaking at 4.53% and the 30-year bond yield at 5.03%, closing at 4.43% and 4.93%, respectively. Yields initially dipped due to technical buying but rose after a downward revision to Q1 GDP personal spending, elevated continuing jobless claims, and a 6.3% drop in April pending home sales.
Weekly
At the start of the week we mentioned this “Following my technical rule I’m expecting previous week low of 4.43% to be targeted while watching 4.382%-4.412% as a possible bounce zone. tradingview.com/x/fRzCdnXl/” Achieved
Though the week is not yet over im still watching the zone mentioned.
Daily
My daily bias today is 4.418% while watching the weekly zone of 4.382%-4.412% as a possible resistance in price.
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.