US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook July 14-18 (updated daily) for TVC:US10Y by Junmadayag

US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook for the week July 14-18 (updated daily)
Overnight
On Friday, the US 10-year Treasury note yield increased by nearly 4 basis points to approximately 4.39%, driven by market concerns over new tariff threats from President Trump. These include a proposed 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1, 2025, and planned 15-20% tariffs on most other trading partners, up from the current 10%. Additional tariffs include 50% duties on Brazilian imports and copper, alongside formal notices to other key trading partners, intensifying trade tensions. Despite these developments, the US Treasury reported strong demand for its recent auctions, with $22 billion in 30-year bonds and $39 billion in 10-year notes. On monetary policy, markets anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates at its next meeting, with expectations of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2025. Source: TradingView News (Trading Economics)
Economic News for the week myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Daily Technical Outlook
With the strong bearish (in price) close on Friday and the week, there’s a chance market will target 4.435% and for the week 4.462%. With the strong influence by fundamental please continue to watch the tariff updates and policy adjustments as this are the strong drivers of market moves the past week. This week will be inflation rate week due on Tuesday.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Note

UST 10Y Daily Bias July 15
Overnight
On July 15, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury note yield climbed to 4.44%, marking a near one-month high. This uptick was driven by escalating trade tensions following President Trump’s announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, set to take effect on August 1. While negotiations continue with hopes of reducing the tariff rate, markets remain cautious. Investors are also focused on upcoming economic data, particularly Tuesday’s CPI release, which is expected to show rising inflation as businesses pass on higher import costs, with PPI data scheduled later in the week. Additionally, markets are pricing in two quarter-point cuts to the federal funds rate in 2025, with the first anticipated in September, reflecting expectations of monetary policy adjustments amid these economic pressures.
Economic Release July 15 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
As anticipated, the market achieved our projected target of 4.435% yesterday, closing above Friday’s high. Our outlook for today suggests a potential move to 4.447% (the previous day’s high), with a possibility of reaching 4.462%. Given that today is CPI release day, which may introduce significant volatility, we recommend exercising caution and consider avoiding trading prior to the announcement if you are uncertain.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Note

UST 10Y Daily Bias July 16
Overnight
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to around 4.47% on Tuesday after an initial dip, as investors reacted to the latest CPI report. While headline inflation met expectations, core inflation was softer than anticipated, indicating subdued underlying price pressures despite recent tariffs. This led traders to slightly increase expectations for two federal funds rate cuts by year-end. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation could rise this summer due to tariff impacts, suggesting potential delays in rate cuts. Upcoming PPI and retail sales data will provide further insight into the US economy’s health.
source: Trading Economics/Traddingview News
Economic Release July 16 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Daily Bias
Target today is previous day high 4.419% which at current typing has been tapped and I am also looking at previous month high (PMH) of 4.518% What’s the reason? Its all about Powell’s comment on tariff effect and inflation. Watch out for PMI due today and possible volatility. Maybe we will see a technical pullback for a breather.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Note

here is the daily chart

Note

UST 10Y Daily Bias July 17
Overnight
Overnight, the US 10-year Treasury note yield declined to 4.46%, retreating from a five-week high of 4.5%. This pullback followed softer-than-expected producer price inflation data, which showed both headline and core producer prices unchanged in June, against forecasts of a 0.2% rise. This alleviated concerns about immediate tariff-related cost pressures. Despite firmer consumer price data released earlier, market expectations for Federal Reserve policy remained steady, anticipating no rate change this month but a potential cut in September. Additionally, President Trump announced a reduction in tariffs on Indonesia from 32% to 19%, signaling possible trade negotiations with major partners before the August 1st deadline.
Source: TradingView News, Trading Economics
Economic Release July 17 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Daily Bias
On the previous trading day, the daily bias level of 4.419% was reached but failed to close above, suggesting a potential correction. For today, the anticipated bias is set at 4.437%. Additionally, a weekly target of 4.518% remains a viable possibility.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Note

UST 10Y Daily Bias July 18
Overnight
Overnight, the US 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.46% from a five-week high of 4.5%. Robust retail sales and a three-month low in unemployment claims signaled a strong US economy, while speculation about President Trump’s influence on Federal Reserve leadership and a potential dovish FOMC shift raised long-term inflation concerns. With no new trade agreements, Japan, Korea, and the EU face tariffs from August 1. These factors—economic strength, Fed policy uncertainty, and trade tensions—drove the yield’s retreat. Investors should monitor FOMC and trade developments for impacts on yields and inflation.
Source: TradingView News, Trading Economics
Economic Release July 18 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Daily Bias
On the previous trading day, the daily bias level of 4.437% was reached but failed to close below, suggesting a potential correction. For today, the anticipated bias is set at 4.493%. Additionally, a weekly target of 4.518% remains a viable possibility.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.