US 10Y Monthly, Weekly and Daily Bias

(note ill be using the charting tool Trading view for faster annotations for multi-timeframe analysis)

A. Please check relevant US Economic news that might influence price action {eco us <GO>}
May 13 US Cpi & Inflation day
May 15 Jobless Claims, Retail sales, PPI, Empire Mfg Index, Fed Powell Speech
May 16 Housing Starts
you may also access in the web and filter the high impact news feed (myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar)

B. Monthly Range
Price action is currently confined to April range high of 4.59% and range low 3.86%

C. Weekly Range
My Bias for the week is to target 4.43% possibly 4.489% if yield starts trading below 4.262% our bias would change.

D. Daily Bias (May 12) will try to update this daily
Previous day high has already been mitigated and I'm more biased to say the first weekly old high's 4.438% will be targeted

Note

May 13 2023

Overnight news
U.S. Treasuries fell sharply at the week’s start as risk sentiment rose following a U.S.-China agreement in Switzerland to temporarily cut tariffs by 115 basis points for 90 days. Treasuries dropped at the cash open, briefly rebounded mid-morning led by the long bond, but faced renewed pressure later, hitting lows as equities gained. No data impacted the market today; April CPI and Core CPI are due tomorrow at 8:30 ET.

CHART WORKS
Weekly Look
As expected market has mitigated our firs weekly target of 4.438% old high. If yield continues to push higher I’m looking at 4.489% as the next draw on liquidity.

Daily Bias
Observing price action, on Monday yield opened and closed higher than Friday’s (May 9) high. For Tuesday, May 13, my draw on liquidity will be yesterday’s high of 4.47% to the old weekly high of 4.489%

Note

US 10Y DAILY BIAS May 14

Fundamental
U.S. Treasuries extended losses to start the week after early gains in shorter tenors gave way to an intraday reversal. The 5-yr note initially rose, but 10s and 30s faced selling pressure following a cooler-than-expected April CPI report (headline 0.2%, core 0.2%; consensus 0.3% for both). Year-over-year, headline CPI slowed to 2.3% from 2.4%, while core CPI held at 2.8%. Losses deepened into the afternoon alongside rising equities.

Economic news that could influence the market (no relevant news coming out of US tonight). On May 15 expect the following myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Price action recap
Yesterday our expected draw of 4.479% prev day high and weekly old highs of 4.489% were mitigated but yield closed below yesterday’s high.

Bias
For today my bias for market to target yesterday’s (May 13) low of 4.426% maybe up to the daily volume imbalance of 4.412%

4Hour Chart work

Note

US 10y BIAS, May 15, 2025

Overnight
U.S. Treasuries recorded a third consecutive day of losses, relinquishing early gains in a repeat of the prior day's price action. Trading began with modest gains across the curve following a quiet global news cycle. Economic reports included weaker-than-expected April social financing data from China and in-line final April CPI readings from Germany and Spain. Treasuries faced pressure post-open, initially resisting but ultimately retreating past the previous day's lows.

US Calendar
Tonight will be a heavy data day that could add volatility in the market added to that will be Fed Powell speech.
myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Bias
Weekly, my closest draw on yield is the weekly fractal high of 4.59% which is not far considering that today or tonight could be a volatile day.

Daily, I was expecting yield to correct yesterday in prep for today’s heavy data day but market continues to be bearish and yield closed higher than Wednesday high. My daily bias today would be yesterdays high of 4.544% up to 4.59% weekly fractal high. If yield decides to reverse ill be looking at 4.447% and possibly 4.412 %.

4hour look

Note

UST 10Y END OF THE WEEK AND DAILY BIAS

Overnight
U.S. Treasuries rallied Thursday, recovering from three days of losses, boosted by a lower-than-expected April PPI (-0.5%; expected 0.3%). Early gains followed news on trade, Iran’s nuclear deal stance, and strong U.K. Q1 GDP (0.7%; expected 0.6%). Despite volatility from PPI, steady jobless claims (229,000), and weak April Retail Sales (0.1%; expected 0.2%), Treasuries rose, closing just below their highs.

Economic Calendar for the Day
myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Weekly recap
As we are nearing the close of the week lets recap where we started. We expected the weekly target of 4.438% and 4.489% to be raided. Target reached! (please see page 3 of the attached journal). It is interesting to note that the weekly candle is forming into a Pin Bar or a reversal candle (depending on how it will close the week) if this will eventually close into the letter there's a "chance" that yield would continue to drop next week barring any new surprises in the economic and geopolitical front..
* A pin bar pattern consists of one price bar, typically a candlestick price bar, which represents a sharp reversal and rejection of price. The pin bar reversal as it is sometimes called, is defined by a long tail, the tail is also referred to as a “shadow” or “wick”.

Daily Bias May 16, 2025
My draw on yield for the day is yesterday's low of 4.43% (already reached as of this typing) Its also important to note that market might target the Daily Volume Imbalance starting at 4.412% to 4.382%. If yield closes below 4.382% chances are price could continue to rally further. Also note the fib levels for possible key reversal points.

Junmadayag

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Junmadayag

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