US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook June 30-July 4 (Updated Daily) for TVC:US10Y by Junmadayag

US Treasury 10Y Technical Outlook June 30-July 4
Overnight
On June 27, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.26% after five sessions of decline, as markets anticipate earlier Fed rate cuts. Recent data, including subdued PCE inflation, a sharp drop in May consumer spending, a 0.5% Q1 GDP contraction, and rising jobless claims since 2021, support these expectations. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish congressional remarks and potential new Fed leadership by September or October further bolster a dovish policy outlook.
Economic Release for the Week myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Technical Outlook
On the monthly chart,

, we can see that price is trading below the 50% level of the previous month’s, May, range showing bullishness in price. Weekly chart,

, we can see the previous week low (PWL) has been broken and closed through suggesting the yield could continue to fall and im looking at 4.24% as a target for the week. Daily Chart, tradingview.com/x/SisYRzHd/, we can see that it did not break Thursday’s low instead priced bounced and gave a green candle. This tells e that there’s a possibility of a technical correction. Im looking at the daily supply area (D -OB 4.332%) for a possible target.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Note

UST 10Y Technical Update July 1
Overnight
Reuters reported that President Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 1% from 4.25%-4.50%, criticizing Chair Jerome Powell and signaling he would appoint a dovish successor by May 2026. Some Fed officials support rate cuts to bolster employment, citing low tariff-related inflation risks, but Powell emphasizes a data-driven approach. Markets reflect mixed sentiments, with a weaker dollar and record-high global stocks amid trade optimism and concerns over Fed independence.
Economic Release July 1 {myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar}

Daily Technical
We are in a new month so it is good to look at the monthly chart to see where we are relative to previous month’s levels. Currently I am inclined to lean on market to target previous month low of 4.222% and also looking at previous old month low of 4.124%. {tradingview.com/x/BUyj0qoH/} . On the Weekly chart, {tradingview.com/x/CyA3G0a2/}, we can see the Prev Week low of 4.24% has been breached but still too early to say where the week will end. And Daily, {tradingview.com/x/fSvF8jM0/} , we closed through Friday’s low of 4.24% and I am expecting Monday’s low of 4.222% to be targeted. As a precaution let me remind you again that this week is an NFP and Employment rate week and this could cause volatility in the market specially on Thursday.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Note

UST 10Y Technical Update July 1
Overnight
Reuters reported that President Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to 1% from 4.25%-4.50%, criticizing Chair Jerome Powell and signaling he would appoint a dovish successor by May 2026. Some Fed officials support rate cuts to bolster employment, citing low tariff-related inflation risks, but Powell emphasizes a data-driven approach. Markets reflect mixed sentiments, with a weaker dollar and record-high global stocks amid trade optimism and concerns over Fed independence.
Economic Release July 1 {myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar}

Daily Technical
We are in a new month so it is good to look at the monthly chart to see where we are relative to previous month’s levels. Currently I am inclined to lean on market to target previous month low of 4.222% and also looking at previous old month low of 4.124%.

. On the Weekly chart, tradingview.com/x/CyA3G0a2/, we can see the Prev Week low of 4.24% has been breached but still too early to say where the week will end. And Daily,

, we closed through Friday’s low of 4.24% and I am expecting Monday’s low of 4.222% to be targeted. As a precaution let me remind you again that this week is an NFP and Employment rate week and this could cause volatility in the market specially on Thursday.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Note

UST 10Y Technical Update July 2
Overnight
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.27%, recovering from a two-month low of 4.19% earlier in the session. This uptick was driven by fiscally dovish policies and recent economic data that reduced expectations for a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut in July. The Senate's approval of President Trump's tax bill, projected to increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion, contributed to concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory, but its price gauge held near three-year highs, signaling persistent inflationary pressures that may hinder disinflation progress. Investors are also monitoring upcoming trade negotiations, as President Trump's 90-day tariff reprieve nears its expiration, adding uncertainty to the fiscal and economic outlook.

Economic Release July2 {myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar}
The only high impact news due today is the ADP Employment change followed by NFP and Unemployment rate due on Thursday.

Daily Technical
We mentioned yesterday that Monay’s low of 4.222% would be targeted but it did not close through so today I’m expecting yesterday, Tuesday’s, (PDH) high of 4.277% as a target as well as watching the relative equal highs (EQH) OF 4.293% as a possible target as well.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Note

UST 10Y Technical Update July 3

Overnight
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.3% from a two-month low of 4.2% as markets evaluated new economic policies. President Trump’s 20% tariff on Vietnam and a $3.3 trillion deficit spending tax bill, approved by the Senate, raised concerns about sustained disinflation. Meanwhile, an ADP report showed a surprising 33,000 job losses in June, against expectations of a 110,000 gain, signaling labor market sensitivity to economic uncertainty and restrictive monetary policies.
The NFP report, due at the New York open, is expected to show 110,000 jobs added in June, the weakest in four months, with unemployment ticking up to 4.3%. After Wednesday’s ADP showed the first private payroll drop in over two years, traders are betting on at least two rate cuts this year, pricing in a soft NFP. A print below 55,000 could push July rate-cut odds above 23%, boosting stocks and bonds, while a sub-100,000 result might still shift sentiment, especially if unemployment rises or revisions disappoint. The dollar, flat yesterday, is vulnerable to a weak print, which could break its two-day stability.
Source: the tradingview news/trading economics/fxstreet.com

ECONOMIC RELEASE TODAY myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

Daily Technical
As mentioned yesterday, “today I’m expecting yesterday, Tuesday’s, (PDH) high of 4.277% as a target as well as watching the relative equal highs (EQH) OF 4.293% as a possible target as well.” The levels were all reached and market closed above Wednesday’s high which leads me to expect a continuation to target yesterday’s high of 4.308%… BUT!! tonight is NFP and Employment numbers which could trigger some volatility and uncertainty so I would advise to be cautious in risking before the news.

**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.