The Bessent Effect: Part I-Challenge the Fed
Originally posted on June 30th, 2025, but it was removed by a moderator — I misinterpreted the posting guidelines (I tend to read a little too deep between the lines sometimes).
For context, the original version didn’t include the White or Green lines.
June 30th post:
The 10-year Treasury yield is the heartbeat of commercial lending — it’s what sets the tone for everything from real estate financing to economic sentiment. And interestingly, it’s now hovering right around the same level it was on Election Day 2024 (Blue Line), which feels like a lifetime ago in policy terms.
So what’s happened since then? Quite a bit.
Yields peaked the week before Inauguration Day (Red Line), then began a steady decline — until we were hit with what can only be described as "Liberation Day Tariff Whiplash."
The tariffs, announced in early April (Yellow Line), spooked the markets — particularly the ever-watchful Real Money Investors (think central banks, pension funds, and the ruthless whales). Their reaction? A spike in the 10-year, as they scrambled to reassess risk and reposition.
Plot twist: Trump’s unleashing of Scott Bessent.
Since stepping into the role of Treasury Secretary, Bessent has taken the reins of U.S. economic diplomacy. By late May (Purple Line), he was already deep in talks at the G7 meeting in Banff, hashing out trade dynamics and currency cooperation with global finance leaders. And — perhaps not so coincidentally — since then, the 10-year has been on the decline again, even as the Fed remains firm in its refusal to cut rates.
Here’s the big takeaway: there's a strong chance we could see rates — the ones that actually move the real estate market and reflect how the “real players” feel — drift back down to their pre-tariff levels. That is, before Tariff Derangement Syndrome set in. And probably before they shoot back up to the peaks we saw just as Trump returned to the White House.
In short: the 10-year might be hinting that the worst isn't over — but we could be in for a stretch of green pastures before we hit the next storm.
Originally posted on June 30th, 2025, but it was removed by a moderator — I misinterpreted the posting guidelines (I tend to read a little too deep between the lines sometimes).
For context, the original version didn’t include the White or Green lines.
June 30th post:
The 10-year Treasury yield is the heartbeat of commercial lending — it’s what sets the tone for everything from real estate financing to economic sentiment. And interestingly, it’s now hovering right around the same level it was on Election Day 2024 (Blue Line), which feels like a lifetime ago in policy terms.
So what’s happened since then? Quite a bit.
Yields peaked the week before Inauguration Day (Red Line), then began a steady decline — until we were hit with what can only be described as "Liberation Day Tariff Whiplash."
The tariffs, announced in early April (Yellow Line), spooked the markets — particularly the ever-watchful Real Money Investors (think central banks, pension funds, and the ruthless whales). Their reaction? A spike in the 10-year, as they scrambled to reassess risk and reposition.
Plot twist: Trump’s unleashing of Scott Bessent.
Since stepping into the role of Treasury Secretary, Bessent has taken the reins of U.S. economic diplomacy. By late May (Purple Line), he was already deep in talks at the G7 meeting in Banff, hashing out trade dynamics and currency cooperation with global finance leaders. And — perhaps not so coincidentally — since then, the 10-year has been on the decline again, even as the Fed remains firm in its refusal to cut rates.
Here’s the big takeaway: there's a strong chance we could see rates — the ones that actually move the real estate market and reflect how the “real players” feel — drift back down to their pre-tariff levels. That is, before Tariff Derangement Syndrome set in. And probably before they shoot back up to the peaks we saw just as Trump returned to the White House.
In short: the 10-year might be hinting that the worst isn't over — but we could be in for a stretch of green pastures before we hit the next storm.
Trade active
The Bessent Effect: Part I-Challenge the Fed - 2025-204📉 By mid-Sept 2024, the perfect storm of:
— recession whispers
— Fed cut anticipation
— cooling inflation vibes
sent yields tumbling 📉
📌 10Y yield dropped 30bps in just 2 weeks.
👀Now?
Some are questioning whether cuts are coming at all.
But if you’ve heard Scott Bessent’s bark at Japan ➕ his push to lower the SLR by August… you know the dog has a plan.
He dresses like a diplomat, thinks like a chess master♟️
Powell may soon learn:
“He bites like a Rottweiler.”
🔍 Technically:
US10Y is hugging a key trendline (White Line).
Lose that → It’s a slippery slope down to
☑️ Liberation Day Low (Yellow Line)
☑️ Maybe even the Sept Freakout Low (Green Line)
Is this another setup for #TheBessentEffect to do its magic?
Stay Sharp. One wrong move could flip the board.
The yield market is at an inflection point. If current levels break down, the move could be more than just technical — it may reflect the early stages of broader policy recalibration or renewed global risk aversion. Be careful what you ask for!
For crypto charts, trading insight and the patterns in my head.
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For crypto charts, trading insight and the patterns in my head.
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.