US 10y Treasury Outlook for the Week May 19-23,2025
May 19, 2025
Friday Fundamental Recap
U.S. Treasuries rose, with the 30-yr yield nearing its mid-January peak (5.005%). Gains followed Japan’s Q1 GDP contraction (-0.2%; expected -0.1%) and a strong eurozone trade surplus (EUR36.8 bln; expected EUR17.5 bln). Weak U.S. data—April Housing Starts and May Consumer Sentiment—limited gains and Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, citing $36 trillion debt, pushed yields higher.
2025 Downgrade (Moody’s, May 16, 2025):
• Immediate Reaction: Treasury yields rose after the downgrade, with 2-year Treasury yields accelerating their climb. This reflects investor demands for higher risk premiums due to perceived fiscal risks.
• Bond Prices: Higher yields correspond to lower bond prices, as investors sell off Treasuries to account for increased risk. The downgrade could lead to further price declines, especially for longer-dated bonds, if yields continue to rise.
• Market Implications: Higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government may exacerbate debt concerns, potentially leading to more volatility. Posts on X indicate expectations of “knee-jerk volatility” and a “risk-off tilt,” suggesting short-term selling pressure on Treasuries.
• Longer-Term Outlook: If investors rotate to defensive assets (e.g., gold), Treasury demand may weaken further, pushing yields higher. However, Treasuries remain the most liquid and relatively safe asset globally, which could limit the extent of yield spikes.
US Economic Calendar for the week
This week's high impact economic news will come on Thursday and Friday while the rest of the week are full of Fed speakers schedules myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Technical Outlook
Monthly
We are still trading within the April range and the closest level I could see as draw on yield is 4.59% if the weakness in price continues.
Weekly
Im a bit uncertain of the target for the week provided that we had a big news on credit down grade. If price continues to deteriorate with the news take note of previous week’s high of 4.548% to the monthly range high of 4.59% as a possible target. If market shrugs of the news look at 4.39% to be targeted.
Daily
To recap what I mentioned last Friday… “Its also important to note that market might target the Daily Volume Imbalance starting at 4.412% to 4.382%. If yield closes below 4.382% chances are price could continue to rally further. Also note the fib levels for possible key reversal points. tradingview.com/x/sVcrLELb/.”
The news on US credit downgrade, it helped fuel the yield to rebound from our expected reversal zone. For today my bias is for yield to target previous day’s high of 4.497% if market decides to push the price lower on this news else still look at previous day low of 4.39% to 4.548%
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
May 19, 2025
Friday Fundamental Recap
U.S. Treasuries rose, with the 30-yr yield nearing its mid-January peak (5.005%). Gains followed Japan’s Q1 GDP contraction (-0.2%; expected -0.1%) and a strong eurozone trade surplus (EUR36.8 bln; expected EUR17.5 bln). Weak U.S. data—April Housing Starts and May Consumer Sentiment—limited gains and Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, citing $36 trillion debt, pushed yields higher.
2025 Downgrade (Moody’s, May 16, 2025):
• Immediate Reaction: Treasury yields rose after the downgrade, with 2-year Treasury yields accelerating their climb. This reflects investor demands for higher risk premiums due to perceived fiscal risks.
• Bond Prices: Higher yields correspond to lower bond prices, as investors sell off Treasuries to account for increased risk. The downgrade could lead to further price declines, especially for longer-dated bonds, if yields continue to rise.
• Market Implications: Higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government may exacerbate debt concerns, potentially leading to more volatility. Posts on X indicate expectations of “knee-jerk volatility” and a “risk-off tilt,” suggesting short-term selling pressure on Treasuries.
• Longer-Term Outlook: If investors rotate to defensive assets (e.g., gold), Treasury demand may weaken further, pushing yields higher. However, Treasuries remain the most liquid and relatively safe asset globally, which could limit the extent of yield spikes.
US Economic Calendar for the week
This week's high impact economic news will come on Thursday and Friday while the rest of the week are full of Fed speakers schedules myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Technical Outlook
Monthly
We are still trading within the April range and the closest level I could see as draw on yield is 4.59% if the weakness in price continues.
Weekly
Im a bit uncertain of the target for the week provided that we had a big news on credit down grade. If price continues to deteriorate with the news take note of previous week’s high of 4.548% to the monthly range high of 4.59% as a possible target. If market shrugs of the news look at 4.39% to be targeted.
Daily
To recap what I mentioned last Friday… “Its also important to note that market might target the Daily Volume Imbalance starting at 4.412% to 4.382%. If yield closes below 4.382% chances are price could continue to rally further. Also note the fib levels for possible key reversal points. tradingview.com/x/sVcrLELb/.”
The news on US credit downgrade, it helped fuel the yield to rebound from our expected reversal zone. For today my bias is for yield to target previous day’s high of 4.497% if market decides to push the price lower on this news else still look at previous day low of 4.39% to 4.548%
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Note
US TREASURY 10Y DAILY TECHNICAL May 20Overnight, U.S. Treasuries faced pressure after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa from Aaa post-Friday’s close. The 10-year note yield peaked at 4.56%, and the 30-year bond yield reached 5.04%. These increases largely reversed in the cash session, as the downgrade was anticipated following prior actions by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, compounded by a weak April Leading Economic Index and short-covering activity.
Daily Bias
As mentioned yesterday, the target of 4.497% to 4.548% were reached but did not close through, instead it closed lower than Friday's high of 4.497%. Today target bias is 4.448% and maybe will continue to range between Monday's high of 4.56% to previous week low of 4.39% until Thursday when high impact news for the eek will come (see prev day post on calendar). Continue watching for any high impact news that may affect the market
Note
US TREASURY 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK May 21, 2025Overnight
U.S. Treasuries saw most of their movement in the overnight session and shortly after the start of the cash session. The 10-yr note yield elevated to 4.52%, and the 30-yr bond yield moved to 5.00%, but just like yesterday, buyers came in to provide support and sent both back below those closely-watched levels. The rest of the session was tightly traded and favored a slight steepening, with the back end of the curve underperforming the front end.
Daily Bias
Just to recap, yesterday we expected Monday low of 4.445% to be targeted and price to consolidate within Monday high of 4.56 and last week’s low of 4.39%. Today my bias is for price to reach for yesterday’s high of 4.52% maybe up to 4.564%. For resistance I’m looking at 4.43% and 4.39%
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Note
US TREASURY 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK May 22, 2025 (REPOST)U.S. Treasuries faced pressure after overnight selling, intensified by a weak $16 billion 20-year bond auction. The sell-off was triggered by a higher-than-expected UK CPI report for April, volatility in Japanese government bonds, and U.S. deficit concerns.
Tonight a slew of high impact economic news will be released so watch out for possible market volatility. myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Weekly Chart:
Looking at the weekly chart, the previous week high was already broken so I’m looking at the next weekly double top old high of 4.664%. Having said that you have to take note that the week is not over yet and there’s a few high impact news that will be released today and tomorrow that could affect the market.
Daily Bias
Bias now is for market to target previous day high of 4.609% and further to that the weekly relative double top of 4.664% as mentioned please be aware of the high impact news to be released tonight.
DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Note
US TREASURY 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK May 23, 2025Overnight
U.S. Treasuries experienced volatility after the House passed the reconciliation bill in a 215-214 vote, raising the SALT deduction cap to $40,000, advancing the Medicaid work requirement to December 2026, and increasing the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. The 10-year note yield reached 4.63%, and the 30-year bond yield hit 5.15%, driven by deficit concerns. However, buyers stepped in, supported by short-covering and a weak April Existing Home Sales Report (4.00 million annualized, the lowest since 2009), leading to a yield reversal. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 99.92 as yields stabilized.
Economic News Today
myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
For today I’m expecting rates to target Thursday’s low of 4.529%. I’m also taking note that 4.517%-4.485% as a possible reversal zone. On the high side, I’m looking at 4.627% and 4.664% as support in price.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.