US30 (Dow Jones) Probability Analysis – February 27, 2025

98

Current Market Structure:
- Timeframe: 30-Minutes
- Key Levels:
- Premium Zone: 43,800 – 43,900
- Equilibrium: ~43,550
- Discount Zone: 43,260 – 43,340
- Previous Day’s High (PDH): 43,900 (near weak high)
- Previous Day’s Low (PDL): 43,260 (strong low)
- Change of Character (CHoCH): Bullish near equilibrium.
- Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed downside moves.

---

1️⃣ Bullish Entry Plan (Long Position)
Entry Criteria (Long)
- Ideal Entry Zone:** 43,340 – 43,420 (Discount Zone)
- Confirmations Needed:
- CHoCH to the upside**, confirming shift in market structure.
- Liquidity grab at PWL (Previous Weak Low).
- Bullish rejection pattern** (Pin Bar, Engulfing, or Order Block reaction).
- Price must stay above PDL (43,260) and Discount Zone.

Entry Trigger
- If price **retests PWL (43,340) and holds**, enter long.

Stop Loss (SL)
- Below PDL (~43,250).

Take Profit (TP)
- **First TP:** 43,700 (Equilibrium zone).
- **Final TP:** 43,850 – 43,900 (Premium Zone & PDH).

📈 Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:3 or higher.



2️⃣ Bearish Entry Plan (Short Position)
Entry Criteria (Short)
- **Ideal Entry Zone:** 43,800 – 43,900 (Premium Zone).
- Confirmations Needed:
- Liquidity grab above PDH (~43,900).
- Bearish rejection (Engulfing candle or BOS to downside).
- Price must fail to hold above PDH.

Entry Trigger
- If price *breaks PDH (43,900) but fails to hold*, enter short.

Stop Loss (SL)
- Above 43,950 (Strong High).

Take Profit (TP)
-First TP: 43,600 (Equilibrium).
- Final TP: 43,340 – 43,260 (Discount Zone & PDL).

📉 Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:4 or higher



3️⃣ Neutral Strategy (Wait for Confirmation)
- If price **remains between Equilibrium (43,550) & Premium Zone (43,800)**, avoid trading.
- Wait for **clear BOS or liquidity grab before executing trades**.


Trading Plan Summary
| Setup | Entry Zone | SL | TP1 | TP2 | R:R |
|--------|----------|----|-----|-----|----|
| ✅ Long | 43,340 – 43,420 | Below 43,250 | 43,700 | 43,900 | 1:3+ |
| 🚨 Short | 43,800 – 43,900 | Above 43,950 | 43,600 | 43,260 | 1:4+ |


Final Thoughts
- **Bullish Bias:** If price holds above **PWL & Discount Zone**.
- **Bearish Bias:** If price **fails at PDH & Premium Zone**.
- **Avoid Choppy Market:** Wait for clear **BOS or liquidity grab**.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.