Wall Street: Probability estimate for the south.
Updated
I'm looking at a daily trend line that has emerged on the US30. I know it's not perfect. Trend lines are never perfect because they are best fit.
Some have been jumping for joy as price bounced off the 200EMA on the daily.
That may be short term good news.
I'm comparing the 2018 approaches of the 200EMA with that around November 2017. Back then it was a slow burn down. You can see this slow burn in the 'squeeze momentum indicator'. Price then hit the 200EMA and went once conclusively below. Then price bounced into a breakout.
This time around there is a deep attack on the market at the daily level - no slow breakdown.
The price action at the 200EMA now, is struggling compared to Nov 2017 when there was hardly a struggle. In Nov 2017 price just dipped below and then took off conclusively. You can see that in the Guppy indicator breakout back then, for the north.
[This above is not advice on whether to short the US30, nor do I encourage anyone to do so]
Some have been jumping for joy as price bounced off the 200EMA on the daily.
That may be short term good news.
I'm comparing the 2018 approaches of the 200EMA with that around November 2017. Back then it was a slow burn down. You can see this slow burn in the 'squeeze momentum indicator'. Price then hit the 200EMA and went once conclusively below. Then price bounced into a breakout.
This time around there is a deep attack on the market at the daily level - no slow breakdown.
The price action at the 200EMA now, is struggling compared to Nov 2017 when there was hardly a struggle. In Nov 2017 price just dipped below and then took off conclusively. You can see that in the Guppy indicator breakout back then, for the north.
[This above is not advice on whether to short the US30, nor do I encourage anyone to do so]
Note
As I was saying...probability is for the south. This does not mean that I know how far south. 
FED balance sheet 42% of GDP @ 2020-01-26. Does money have value anymore? [Different perspective on the virus youtu.be/NjTdvALChwk ]
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