US30 Weekly Outlook
Updated
Hello Traders,
As mentioned in my analysis for the DXY, based on technical and fundamental analysis, I believe dollar will gain some strength this week as a correction for its recent sell off due to the NFP report. Because of this, equities should see some weakness as a correction then follow up with growth.
US30 has been in a consolidation all week with the possibility of continuing that consolidation until a bigger fundamental catalyst gives it that push. I am looking two things, either a reaction from the order block right above the first set of buy stops then a sell off, or right above the liquidity pool where price briefly broke through on Friday then then a sell off to target one. I expect a reversal at the end of the week, if PPI figures come back good. I do expect Dow and Nasdaq to continue to consolidate for the rest of the week then a rally on Friday.
COT reports that were published on August 31st, show commercials are net SHORT on Dow Jones, and added about 1800 new short positions, while the smaller spec is net bullish..
Potential Bullish Fundamental Catalyst:
1. 09/08 Increased Job Openings
2.Lower Unemployment Claims
3. Less oil inventory
4.Lower PPI, inflation curving down, reduction in government spending package.
5. delay in tapering.
6. Delay in government spending package, delay in corporate taxes, positive sentiment and rising vaccination rates.
Bearish Fundamental Catalyst:
1.09/15 Increased corporate/capital earning taxes.
2. 09/27 3.5 Trillion Government spending package bill (can be negotiated through November)-- possible 5-10% pull back on equities.
3. increased inflation , less job openings, higher unemployment claims, higher ppi figures.
4. Acceleration of tapering.
5. Europe reopening/possible rate hikes and increased vaccination rates rising.
6. Supply and demand issues continue to increase, with increased shortages.
As mentioned in my analysis for the DXY, based on technical and fundamental analysis, I believe dollar will gain some strength this week as a correction for its recent sell off due to the NFP report. Because of this, equities should see some weakness as a correction then follow up with growth.
US30 has been in a consolidation all week with the possibility of continuing that consolidation until a bigger fundamental catalyst gives it that push. I am looking two things, either a reaction from the order block right above the first set of buy stops then a sell off, or right above the liquidity pool where price briefly broke through on Friday then then a sell off to target one. I expect a reversal at the end of the week, if PPI figures come back good. I do expect Dow and Nasdaq to continue to consolidate for the rest of the week then a rally on Friday.
COT reports that were published on August 31st, show commercials are net SHORT on Dow Jones, and added about 1800 new short positions, while the smaller spec is net bullish..
Potential Bullish Fundamental Catalyst:
1. 09/08 Increased Job Openings
2.Lower Unemployment Claims
3. Less oil inventory
4.Lower PPI, inflation curving down, reduction in government spending package.
5. delay in tapering.
6. Delay in government spending package, delay in corporate taxes, positive sentiment and rising vaccination rates.
Bearish Fundamental Catalyst:
1.09/15 Increased corporate/capital earning taxes.
2. 09/27 3.5 Trillion Government spending package bill (can be negotiated through November)-- possible 5-10% pull back on equities.
3. increased inflation , less job openings, higher unemployment claims, higher ppi figures.
4. Acceleration of tapering.
5. Europe reopening/possible rate hikes and increased vaccination rates rising.
6. Supply and demand issues continue to increase, with increased shortages.
Trade active
HTF ob hit, will be waiting for a minor bearish movement during asian then a retest to the highs during london and one final retest before NYSE to continue the sell off.Trade active
wooo!! selling off :)Trade closed: target reached
TP Smashed!!!!Trade closed: target reached
Real target perfectly hit, time for some longs :)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.