Previous SPX idea has hit our stop loss. The position was entered on touch of the lower channel trend line, however we have since fell through our tight stop. Our outlook for the SPX remains the same, with a new entry shown above between 5589-5560 and a stop loss placed below higher timeframe (8 day dynamic support) and the 61.8% fib retracement around 5360. Targets remain the same, fundamentals remain the same. Risk to reward is now 1:4.
Below is the previous ideas description which is still valid with the new price levels mentioned above:
Previous idea (Stop loss hit):
SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down?
Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition:
📈 Current Setup:
📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. Check out our previously published long-term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication).
🛩 Right now, we can see price is testing the channel's lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluences of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here.
📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake-out or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor, looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimize risk.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones):
🔹 Key Support Levels:
🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long-Term Reversal):
✅ Justification:
📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation Once 6,650 is Reached):
✅ Justification:
⚡ Key Takeaways:
📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025):
Economic Releases:
🌐 Geopolitical Developments:
📊 Portfolio Management Strategy:
Below is the previous ideas description which is still valid with the new price levels mentioned above:
Previous idea (Stop loss hit):
SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down?
Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition:
📈 Current Setup:
📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. Check out our previously published long-term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication).
🛩 Right now, we can see price is testing the channel's lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluences of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here.
📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake-out or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor, looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimize risk.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones):
- 🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication)
- 🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears
- 🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling
🔹 Key Support Levels:
- ❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support
- 🔹 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence
- 📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6,650 All-Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment.
🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long-Term Reversal):
- 🟢 Entry: Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close).
- 🎯 Take Profit 1: 6,150 (Previous high).
- 🎯 Take Profit 2: 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension).
- 🎯 Take Profit 3: 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publication).
- 🔴 Stop Loss: Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation).
✅ Justification:
- 🛩 The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however, we believe based on our technical analysis both here and our long-term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control.
- 🛩 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation Once 6,650 is Reached):
- ❌ Invalidation Level: Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier).
- 🔹 Downside Short-Term Targets:
5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support.
5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity.
5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low. - 🔹 Downside Long-Term Targets:
- 5,500 – 0.382 Fib
- 4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high
- 4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible.
- 5,500 – 0.382 Fib
✅ Justification:
- ❗ Please read - tradingview.com/chart/SP500/y1MheMU6-Read-Comprehensive-Analysis-of-Potential-S-P500-Market-Crash/
- ❗ Higher Time Frame Long-Term Analysis -
- ❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside.
⚡ Key Takeaways:
- 🛩 SPX500 is at a crossroads: Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13.
- 🛩 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03.
- 🛩 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13; otherwise, bears dominate.
📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025):
Economic Releases:
- 🗓 Mar 10: U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness.
- 🗓 Mar 12: Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown.
- 🗓 Mar 14: FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections.
🌐 Geopolitical Developments:
- 🗓 Mar 11: Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity.
- 🗓 Mar 13: Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets.
- 🗓 Ongoing: Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility.
📊 Portfolio Management Strategy:
- 💰 Buy Entry: At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence).
- 🎯 Take Profit: 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6).
- ❌ Stop Loss: Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib).
Trade active
We have 5 days remaining to see a nice rejection back up towards 5900 to confirm this position. Not entirely necessary within 5 days but it would add confidence to our trade. Regardless, we will set a break even stop at an appropriate level on the next few days should price continue upwards (Its just starting to bounce as of today).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.