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SPX500 Future
Long
Updated

SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)

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SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down?

Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition:
SPX edges towards the final buy zone


📈 Current Setup:
  • 📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. previous touch of this ascending channel) Check out our previously published long term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication).
  • 🔹 Right now, we can see price is testing the channels lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluence of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here.
  • 📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake out, or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimise risk.



📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones):
  • 🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication)
  • 🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears
  • 🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling


📍 Key Support Levels:
  • ❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support
  • 🔻 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence
  • 📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6650 All Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment.




🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long Term Reversal):
  • 🟢 Entry: Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close).
  • 🎯 Take Profit 1: 6,150 (Previous high).
  • 🎯 Take Profit 2: 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension).
  • 🎯 Take Profit 3: 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publiation).
  • 🔴 Stop Loss: Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation).


✅ Justification:
  • 🔹The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however we believe based on our technical analysis both here, and our long term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control.
  • 🔹 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum.




📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary expectation once 6650 is reached):
  • ❌ Invalidation Level: Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier).
  • 🔻 Downside Short-Term Targets:5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support.
    5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity.
    5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low.
  • 🔻 Downside Long-Term Targets:
    • 5,500 – 0.382 Fib
    • 4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high
    • 4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible.


✅ Justification:



⚡ Key Takeaways:
  • 🔹 SPX500 is at a crossroads: Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13.
  • 🔹 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03.
  • 🔹 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13; otherwise, bears dominate.



📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025):

Economic Releases:
  • 📅 Mar 10: U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness.
  • 📅 Mar 12: Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown.
  • 📅 Mar 14: FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections.


🌐 Geopolitical Developments:
  • 📅 Mar 11: Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity.
  • 📅 Mar 13: Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets.
  • 📅 Ongoing: Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility.


📊 Market Sentiment:
  • 📉 Equity Flows: Hedge funds remain underweight equities (BofA survey), suggesting short-term liquidity-driven rally.
  • 📉 Options Market: SPX500 gamma gap at 6,800 killed by recent churn, hedging flows may cap tops.




🎯 Portfolio Management Strategy:
  • 💰 Buy Entry: At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence).
  • 🎯 Take Profit: 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6).
  • ❌ Stop Loss: Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib).


As price approaches 6,600, consider allocating capital to long-dated puts on the SPX500 to hedge against volatility spikes. A confirmed break below 5,755.70 would signal a shift toward bearish regimes, aligning with geopolitical tensions and potential Fed tightening.

Trade active
Trade closed: stop reached
Stop hit. Looking for another long entry around 5560
Who-Is-Caerus
Chart PatternsTechnical IndicatorsTrend Analysis

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Chart PatternsTechnical IndicatorsTrend Analysis
Who-Is-Caerus

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.