US Equities poised for a post-holiday rebound, with futures up following Donald Trump's decision to delay EU tariff implementation until July 9. The temporary reprieve has improved short-term risk sentiment, with the EU seeking to fast-track trade talks focused on critical sectors—potentially bullish for industrials, autos, and tech exporters.
Geopolitical Risk Elevated
Western pressure on Russia is intensifying:
Germany's decision to allow Ukraine long-range strikes into Russian territory marks a notable escalation.
Trump signaled potential new sanctions against Russia and sharply criticized Putin, increasing global risk premiums.
This could fuel defense sector strength and lift energy stocks if geopolitical tension drives oil prices higher.
FX Pressure – USD Weakness Persists
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, despite a slight intraday bounce. It has fallen over 7% YTD, hitting its lowest level since 2023 last Friday.
Speculative traders and hedge funds are building USD short positions.
Drivers of weakness: Trump’s tariff rhetoric, and concerns over the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit.
Trading Implications:
Risk-on tone favors growth stocks, tech, and cyclicals.
Multinationals may benefit from USD weakness, improving earnings translations.
Defense stocks (e.g., RTX, LMT) could gain from the escalation in Ukraine.
Watch for volatility as headlines shift around trade, tariffs, and Russia.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5970
Resistance Level 2: 6010
Resistance Level 3: 6085
Support Level 1: 5793
Support Level 2: 5730
Support Level 3: 5685
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Geopolitical Risk Elevated
Western pressure on Russia is intensifying:
Germany's decision to allow Ukraine long-range strikes into Russian territory marks a notable escalation.
Trump signaled potential new sanctions against Russia and sharply criticized Putin, increasing global risk premiums.
This could fuel defense sector strength and lift energy stocks if geopolitical tension drives oil prices higher.
FX Pressure – USD Weakness Persists
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, despite a slight intraday bounce. It has fallen over 7% YTD, hitting its lowest level since 2023 last Friday.
Speculative traders and hedge funds are building USD short positions.
Drivers of weakness: Trump’s tariff rhetoric, and concerns over the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit.
Trading Implications:
Risk-on tone favors growth stocks, tech, and cyclicals.
Multinationals may benefit from USD weakness, improving earnings translations.
Defense stocks (e.g., RTX, LMT) could gain from the escalation in Ukraine.
Watch for volatility as headlines shift around trade, tariffs, and Russia.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5970
Resistance Level 2: 6010
Resistance Level 3: 6085
Support Level 1: 5793
Support Level 2: 5730
Support Level 3: 5685
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.