If someone thinks that the bear market in the US indices has arrived, I want to show you a monthly chart that shows that the trend is still long. We got a reaction of the 0.5 Fibonacci zone. But we entered the monthly accumulation with a gradual test of the Last Structure FVG.
At this timeframe, the price has already broken the ascending structure, which means that in order to regain its ascending status, the structure needs to invert the weekly FVG, in other words, to consolidate above the 5554 level.
So far, there are no long positions, but if we look at the monthly FVG target test, we can try to find short positions when the price reaches 5554 and does not consolidate above this level 
1. Trump’s Economic Vision in 2025
Introduced a 10% baseline global tariff starting April 5, 2025.
Over 25% tariffs were imposed on key trade partners like China and Mexico.
Objectives: reduce the $887B trade deficit, combat currency manipulation, and strengthen domestic industry.
Domestically, Trump extended the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (risking a
4T budget deficit over 10 years) and prioritized deregulation, particularly in fossil fuels.
2. Trump’s Relationship with the Federal Reserve
Resurfaces criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling for interest rate cuts.
Pushed a Supreme Court case challenging the Fed’s independence, aiming to give the President authority to remove the Fed Chair.
Analysts warn this threatens central bank credibility, potentially raising long-term inflation expectations.
3. Impact of Tariffs on Economic Stability
Long-term GDP projected to fall by 6%; wages by 5% (Wharton Model).
Households face up to $5,200 in additional annual costs due to price increases.
Investment and exports decline; EU exports could drop 8% to 66%.
While benefiting sectors like steel, tariffs risk broader job losses in supply-chain industries.
4. Federal Reserve’s Challenges
The Fed navigates inflationary pressure while maintaining economic stability.
Only one rate cut expected in 2025 despite political pressure.
Tariffs complicate monetary policy by fueling external inflation and supply disruptions.
5. S&P 500 and Market Outlook
S&P 500 dropped 7% after new tariffs were announced (stagflation fears).
Despite past growth during Trump’s first term (+68%), current policies increase volatility.
Risks include reduced capital inflow, weakened Fed independence, and ongoing global retaliation.
✅ Conclusion
Donald Trump’s 2025 economic strategy hinges on aggressive tariffs and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates. While intended to stimulate domestic growth, these moves contribute to inflation, challenge institutional independence, and heighten market volatility. For investors and policymakers, the path forward demands careful navigation of an economic environment shaped by protectionism, policy conflict, and fragile monetary stability.
So far, everything does not look good. I am waiting for the approval of the BTC reserve for May (next month). This could positively affect the American economy in the SHORT TERM.
Best regards, EXCAVO
_____________________
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
1. Trump’s Economic Vision in 2025
Introduced a 10% baseline global tariff starting April 5, 2025.
Over 25% tariffs were imposed on key trade partners like China and Mexico.
Objectives: reduce the $887B trade deficit, combat currency manipulation, and strengthen domestic industry.
Domestically, Trump extended the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (risking a
4T budget deficit over 10 years) and prioritized deregulation, particularly in fossil fuels.2. Trump’s Relationship with the Federal Reserve
Resurfaces criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling for interest rate cuts.
Pushed a Supreme Court case challenging the Fed’s independence, aiming to give the President authority to remove the Fed Chair.
Analysts warn this threatens central bank credibility, potentially raising long-term inflation expectations.
3. Impact of Tariffs on Economic Stability
Long-term GDP projected to fall by 6%; wages by 5% (Wharton Model).
Households face up to $5,200 in additional annual costs due to price increases.
Investment and exports decline; EU exports could drop 8% to 66%.
While benefiting sectors like steel, tariffs risk broader job losses in supply-chain industries.
4. Federal Reserve’s Challenges
The Fed navigates inflationary pressure while maintaining economic stability.
Only one rate cut expected in 2025 despite political pressure.
Tariffs complicate monetary policy by fueling external inflation and supply disruptions.
5. S&P 500 and Market Outlook
S&P 500 dropped 7% after new tariffs were announced (stagflation fears).
Despite past growth during Trump’s first term (+68%), current policies increase volatility.
Risks include reduced capital inflow, weakened Fed independence, and ongoing global retaliation.
✅ Conclusion
Donald Trump’s 2025 economic strategy hinges on aggressive tariffs and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates. While intended to stimulate domestic growth, these moves contribute to inflation, challenge institutional independence, and heighten market volatility. For investors and policymakers, the path forward demands careful navigation of an economic environment shaped by protectionism, policy conflict, and fragile monetary stability.
So far, everything does not look good. I am waiting for the approval of the BTC reserve for May (next month). This could positively affect the American economy in the SHORT TERM.
Best regards, EXCAVO
_____________________
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Join the Crypto Trading Tournament ICTI 2025
whitebit.com/a/excavo
Trade Forex
go.tradenation.com/visit/?bta=37220&brand=tradenation
All info
excavo.carrd.co/
t.me/EXCAVOACADEMY
t.me/excavochannel
whitebit.com/a/excavo
Trade Forex
go.tradenation.com/visit/?bta=37220&brand=tradenation
All info
excavo.carrd.co/
t.me/EXCAVOACADEMY
t.me/excavochannel
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.