The upside recovery in the US 500 index continued last week, adding nearly 5% to close at 5523 on Friday, a 1 month high, as weak short positions continued to be squeezed out by a combination of factors, including signs that US/China trade relations may be starting to thaw out, President Trump pulling back on his initial commentary challenging Federal Reserve independence and more positive Alphabet earnings.
Now, looking forward to the week ahead, traders trying to work out where the index may move next face a number of scheduled economic data updates to digest and then react to, which will provide a health check on the US economy and labour market, while also showing the impact of President Trump's tariffs on US inflation.
These include,
* Tuesday 1500 BST US Consumer Confidence
* Wednesday 1330 BST US Preliminary Q1 GDP,
* Wednesday 1500 BST US PCE Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge)
* Thursday 1500 BST ISM Manufacturing PMI Survey
* Friday 1330 BST US Non-farm Payrolls
Not only that, 4 of the Magnificent Seven companies also report earnings, with Microsoft and Meta results due after the close on Wednesday and Amazon and Apple due after the close on Thursday.
The outcome of all these events, plus trade war/tariff updates may well determine if the rally has already run its course, or has further to go.
Technical Update: Is the Break of Mid-Point (50%) Fibonacci Resistance Important?
Last week was a positive one for the US 500 index, as an 8.5% rally developed from Monday’s session low at 5095 into Friday’s high at 5530. This of course comes after what was an aggressive liquidation of assets into the April lows at 4799 (April 7th), and some may now be asking if this could be a sign of further attempts at price strength.
Much will of course depend on future market sentiment and price trends, but last week’s strength did see a closing break above the 5474 level, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February to April 2025 price weakness.
This upside move may leave traders looking at the possibilities of further attempts at price strength this week and wondering where the next resistance levels may now stand.
Potential Resistance Levels:
A closing break of a 50% retracement while not a guarantee of further price strength, can suggest risks to higher levels and 5635, which is the higher 62% Fibonacci retracement could be the next resistance level to monitor.
If a further phase of price strength is to materialise, traders might now focus on closing defense of this 5635 resistance, with breaks higher possibly opening up potential tests of 5788, which marks the March 25th session high.
Potential Support Levels:
Of course, as we have said, the latest breaks of the 50% retracement resistance are not a sure sign of continued price strength. So, with that in mind, lets look at possible support levels that if broken, might point to the potential of downside pressure.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last weeks rally stands at 5364, so even if the new week starts with a price setback, this level may need to be broken on a closing basis to suggest risks of further price declines.
Such breaks lower could then point to a deeper decline and retracement towards 5313, the 50% level, even 5262, which is equal to the 62% retracement.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Now, looking forward to the week ahead, traders trying to work out where the index may move next face a number of scheduled economic data updates to digest and then react to, which will provide a health check on the US economy and labour market, while also showing the impact of President Trump's tariffs on US inflation.
These include,
* Tuesday 1500 BST US Consumer Confidence
* Wednesday 1330 BST US Preliminary Q1 GDP,
* Wednesday 1500 BST US PCE Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge)
* Thursday 1500 BST ISM Manufacturing PMI Survey
* Friday 1330 BST US Non-farm Payrolls
Not only that, 4 of the Magnificent Seven companies also report earnings, with Microsoft and Meta results due after the close on Wednesday and Amazon and Apple due after the close on Thursday.
The outcome of all these events, plus trade war/tariff updates may well determine if the rally has already run its course, or has further to go.
Technical Update: Is the Break of Mid-Point (50%) Fibonacci Resistance Important?
Last week was a positive one for the US 500 index, as an 8.5% rally developed from Monday’s session low at 5095 into Friday’s high at 5530. This of course comes after what was an aggressive liquidation of assets into the April lows at 4799 (April 7th), and some may now be asking if this could be a sign of further attempts at price strength.
Much will of course depend on future market sentiment and price trends, but last week’s strength did see a closing break above the 5474 level, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February to April 2025 price weakness.
This upside move may leave traders looking at the possibilities of further attempts at price strength this week and wondering where the next resistance levels may now stand.
Potential Resistance Levels:
A closing break of a 50% retracement while not a guarantee of further price strength, can suggest risks to higher levels and 5635, which is the higher 62% Fibonacci retracement could be the next resistance level to monitor.
If a further phase of price strength is to materialise, traders might now focus on closing defense of this 5635 resistance, with breaks higher possibly opening up potential tests of 5788, which marks the March 25th session high.
Potential Support Levels:
Of course, as we have said, the latest breaks of the 50% retracement resistance are not a sure sign of continued price strength. So, with that in mind, lets look at possible support levels that if broken, might point to the potential of downside pressure.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of last weeks rally stands at 5364, so even if the new week starts with a price setback, this level may need to be broken on a closing basis to suggest risks of further price declines.
Such breaks lower could then point to a deeper decline and retracement towards 5313, the 50% level, even 5262, which is equal to the 62% retracement.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.