USDCAD Price broke out from a long descending channel, followed by two bullish continuation flags – classic breakout-retest pattern.
Price is now pushing above 1.3720, aligning with the 38.2% Fib level of the prior drop.
Next upside targets:
🔹 1.3833 (Fib 61.8%)
🔹 1.3913 (Fib 78.6%)
Clear stop level: below 1.3625 (channel breakout support)
Structure Bias: Bullish continuation. Clean breakout + consolidation = probable impulse toward 1.3830/1.39.
📊 Current Bias: Bullish
🔍 Key Fundamentals Driving USDCAD
USD Drivers (Neutral to Bullish):
Fed held rates, dot plot shows only 1 cut in 2025, but Powell's tone leaned dovish.
US Retail Sales + PPI were weak, but safe-haven USD demand persists due to geopolitical risks and equity volatility.
Market reassessing Trump election risk, Fed independence, and inflation stickiness.
CAD Drivers (Bearish):
Oil prices are volatile due to Middle East tensions, but weak demand caps upside.
Canada’s CPI softened, BoC already delivered a dovish cut earlier this month.
CAD under pressure due to dovish BoC outlook and fiscal concerns (gov't budget deficits expanding).
CAD is also suffering from reduced foreign investment flows.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
Oil price spikes (especially if Strait of Hormuz risk escalates) may boost CAD short-term.
A sharp reversal in DXY or Fed commentary shift toward aggressive easing.
Weak US data next week (Core PCE especially) could unwind USD momentum.
🗓️ Upcoming Events to Watch
US Core PCE (June 28) – critical inflation gauge for the Fed
BoC Business Outlook Survey
Oil Inventories + Global energy sentiment
Geopolitical: Israel–Iran updates and Canada’s fiscal signals
🏁 Which Pair Leads the Move?
USDCAD is leading commodity crosses as CAD weakness broadens. Watch USDCAD and GBPCAD for signs of CAD softness before others like AUDCAD/NZDCAD follow.
Price is now pushing above 1.3720, aligning with the 38.2% Fib level of the prior drop.
Next upside targets:
🔹 1.3833 (Fib 61.8%)
🔹 1.3913 (Fib 78.6%)
Clear stop level: below 1.3625 (channel breakout support)
Structure Bias: Bullish continuation. Clean breakout + consolidation = probable impulse toward 1.3830/1.39.
📊 Current Bias: Bullish
🔍 Key Fundamentals Driving USDCAD
USD Drivers (Neutral to Bullish):
Fed held rates, dot plot shows only 1 cut in 2025, but Powell's tone leaned dovish.
US Retail Sales + PPI were weak, but safe-haven USD demand persists due to geopolitical risks and equity volatility.
Market reassessing Trump election risk, Fed independence, and inflation stickiness.
CAD Drivers (Bearish):
Oil prices are volatile due to Middle East tensions, but weak demand caps upside.
Canada’s CPI softened, BoC already delivered a dovish cut earlier this month.
CAD under pressure due to dovish BoC outlook and fiscal concerns (gov't budget deficits expanding).
CAD is also suffering from reduced foreign investment flows.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
Oil price spikes (especially if Strait of Hormuz risk escalates) may boost CAD short-term.
A sharp reversal in DXY or Fed commentary shift toward aggressive easing.
Weak US data next week (Core PCE especially) could unwind USD momentum.
🗓️ Upcoming Events to Watch
US Core PCE (June 28) – critical inflation gauge for the Fed
BoC Business Outlook Survey
Oil Inventories + Global energy sentiment
Geopolitical: Israel–Iran updates and Canada’s fiscal signals
🏁 Which Pair Leads the Move?
USDCAD is leading commodity crosses as CAD weakness broadens. Watch USDCAD and GBPCAD for signs of CAD softness before others like AUDCAD/NZDCAD follow.
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📊 Forex Signals | Free Daily Alerts
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.