USD/CAD has strengthened significantly over the past few days as markets have been shaken by President Trump’s new trade war with Canada and the rest of the world. That said, USD/CAD may be due for a pause in its recent rally and could consolidate somewhat, having reached some key technical indicators and support levels.
The loonie’s relative strength index fell to 29, while USD/CAD dropped below the lower Bollinger Band at CA$1.387. This magnitude of movement suggests that USD/CAD is currently oversold and may be due for either a short-term rebound or a period of sideways consolidation. The pair could also bounce back towards resistance at CA$1.416 or the 20-day moving average at CA$1.421.
However, if USD/CAD breaks support at CA$1.3870, it could signal that further strengthening lies ahead, with the potential to drop towards CA$1.359, which served as an important area of support and resistance between December 2023 and October 2024.
USD/CAD could continue strengthening against the dollar; the greenback has weakened versus multiple currencies, and any pause in the dollar’s current downtrend may be short-lived, due to possible massive deleveraging out of the US and capital flow back to their nations of origin. Still, after such a significant move, USD/CAD seems potentially due for at least a short-term period of consolidation before the uptrend resumes.
Written by Michael J Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
The loonie’s relative strength index fell to 29, while USD/CAD dropped below the lower Bollinger Band at CA$1.387. This magnitude of movement suggests that USD/CAD is currently oversold and may be due for either a short-term rebound or a period of sideways consolidation. The pair could also bounce back towards resistance at CA$1.416 or the 20-day moving average at CA$1.421.
However, if USD/CAD breaks support at CA$1.3870, it could signal that further strengthening lies ahead, with the potential to drop towards CA$1.359, which served as an important area of support and resistance between December 2023 and October 2024.
USD/CAD could continue strengthening against the dollar; the greenback has weakened versus multiple currencies, and any pause in the dollar’s current downtrend may be short-lived, due to possible massive deleveraging out of the US and capital flow back to their nations of origin. Still, after such a significant move, USD/CAD seems potentially due for at least a short-term period of consolidation before the uptrend resumes.
Written by Michael J Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.