USDCAD 18/08/2019
Updated
Weekly:
On the weekly we can see that the trend since late 2017 has been bullish. However a lower high was finally made around May 2019. A lower low was then made around July 2019.
Upon using a fib retracement from the lower high to the lower low, we can see that the 61.8 fib level was touched and looks like it will start descending. There is also a weekly support level around the 1.33000 area which has now turned resistance. The week ended below the 1.33000 level and could possibly be argued that the candlestick is a shooting star candlestick, indicating a reversal towards the bearish side.
The long term target is just below the 1.29000 region, but as round numbers are much preferred we will place the first long term fib target (27%) at 1.29000.
Daily:
We can see on the daily that the previous mentioned uptrend was broken and retested perfectly and it started to go down. Upon a fib on that previous break the targets were reached. We can now do a new fib (which we did and are talking about for our targets now).
The fib level on the daily shows us that the 1.29000 target also matches up. There is also a bearish trend line which is being respected. It looked as if the 1.33000 resistance level was being broken, but the bearish TL was respected and hopefully it was only a fakeout.
This was the trade I was talking about last week, and if we took it we would have been 40 pips in profit already.
However, since we did not enter, we can enter a trade upon breaking the short term bullish trendline. This can act as a confirmation of more bearish movement if the bullish TL is broken. I would however, wait for a retest on the green 4HR box level before entering. I would then hold this trade until before the 1.29000 level. Move stop loss into profit once the weekly support level of 1.31000 level is reached.
On the weekly we can see that the trend since late 2017 has been bullish. However a lower high was finally made around May 2019. A lower low was then made around July 2019.
Upon using a fib retracement from the lower high to the lower low, we can see that the 61.8 fib level was touched and looks like it will start descending. There is also a weekly support level around the 1.33000 area which has now turned resistance. The week ended below the 1.33000 level and could possibly be argued that the candlestick is a shooting star candlestick, indicating a reversal towards the bearish side.
The long term target is just below the 1.29000 region, but as round numbers are much preferred we will place the first long term fib target (27%) at 1.29000.
Daily:
We can see on the daily that the previous mentioned uptrend was broken and retested perfectly and it started to go down. Upon a fib on that previous break the targets were reached. We can now do a new fib (which we did and are talking about for our targets now).
The fib level on the daily shows us that the 1.29000 target also matches up. There is also a bearish trend line which is being respected. It looked as if the 1.33000 resistance level was being broken, but the bearish TL was respected and hopefully it was only a fakeout.
This was the trade I was talking about last week, and if we took it we would have been 40 pips in profit already.
However, since we did not enter, we can enter a trade upon breaking the short term bullish trendline. This can act as a confirmation of more bearish movement if the bullish TL is broken. I would however, wait for a retest on the green 4HR box level before entering. I would then hold this trade until before the 1.29000 level. Move stop loss into profit once the weekly support level of 1.31000 level is reached.
Note
UPDATE: The upper TL seemed to have broke and seemed to have a 4HR retest, I took a long trade with a tight SL and got stopped out.Note
The short analysis still remains and can play out if the shorter term ascending TL breaks.
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