USDCAD : INSIDE BAR FAKE OUT FROM THE CONFLUENT LEVEL.
Updated
USDCAD!!!!!
May be a good find on Monday. Normally Monday's dont treat well like this but this one seems a surprise and a gift, X-MAS is close , so we expect that :). So Let's talk about what we got here.
Pretty simple and self explanatory. Most of the time what is simple works the most, and we as traders always trying to go after complications and trying to make the whole system so complex just to have a feeling of self fulfilment about us working so hard however, the only thing we call handwork in our profession is "Focus & Commitment" & anything other than this are just diversions.
So, USDCAD is in a clear uptrend & making series of HH, HL and one of the best entry areas in a trending market is to enter near the recent swing high for an uptrend and near the recent swing low for downtrend. And here we have got a nice inside bar fake out pattern just aligning with the recent swing high (HH) & The setup produced a nice pin bar rejecting the lower prices and the pin bar itself is protruding from the surrounding price action. Now, there is an overhead resistance right at 1.3345 - 1.3350 , so to make good sense of this trade , we will have to take a 50% retrace entry of the fake out pin bar with which we can achieve 1:2 and this trade will then make sense in the context of money management because we trade those setups which at least can give us 1:2 & nothing less than that.
Let's now talk about the factors of confluence we have on this trade idea :
1. Daily dominant uptrend ( If your idea in is line with the daily dominant trend , then the trend itself is one of the confluent factor)
2. Price action setup formed from the value area within an uptrend.
3. EMA slope confirming a strong up-trend and momentum
4. A well formed pin bar protruding from the surrounding price action & faking out the inside bar setup by rejecting lower prices.
5. R:R = 1:2 available.
Based on the confluent factors available, this trade idea deserve a shot , so below is the trade idea :
Buy limit placed @ 1.3278 (Will update once the order is filled)
Stop placed @ 1.3250
Take profit target @ 1.3334
R:R = 1:2
NOTE : Please keep a room to move stop to 1.3245 or even 1.3240 in unforeseen circumstances as even we give our stop another 5 to 10 pips (hopefully we wont't need to use this) , still we can aim for 1.3340 or even 1.3350 and exit the trade with almost 1:2.
This one can only be taken on a limit entry in order to achieve the 1:2 as there is an overhead resistance @ 1.3345 - 50 & we want to get out with at least 1:2 before price tests the resistance level.
NOTE : Even the best setups can fail, so "MANAGE RISK PROPERLY"
May be a good find on Monday. Normally Monday's dont treat well like this but this one seems a surprise and a gift, X-MAS is close , so we expect that :). So Let's talk about what we got here.
Pretty simple and self explanatory. Most of the time what is simple works the most, and we as traders always trying to go after complications and trying to make the whole system so complex just to have a feeling of self fulfilment about us working so hard however, the only thing we call handwork in our profession is "Focus & Commitment" & anything other than this are just diversions.
So, USDCAD is in a clear uptrend & making series of HH, HL and one of the best entry areas in a trending market is to enter near the recent swing high for an uptrend and near the recent swing low for downtrend. And here we have got a nice inside bar fake out pattern just aligning with the recent swing high (HH) & The setup produced a nice pin bar rejecting the lower prices and the pin bar itself is protruding from the surrounding price action. Now, there is an overhead resistance right at 1.3345 - 1.3350 , so to make good sense of this trade , we will have to take a 50% retrace entry of the fake out pin bar with which we can achieve 1:2 and this trade will then make sense in the context of money management because we trade those setups which at least can give us 1:2 & nothing less than that.
Let's now talk about the factors of confluence we have on this trade idea :
1. Daily dominant uptrend ( If your idea in is line with the daily dominant trend , then the trend itself is one of the confluent factor)
2. Price action setup formed from the value area within an uptrend.
3. EMA slope confirming a strong up-trend and momentum
4. A well formed pin bar protruding from the surrounding price action & faking out the inside bar setup by rejecting lower prices.
5. R:R = 1:2 available.
Based on the confluent factors available, this trade idea deserve a shot , so below is the trade idea :
Buy limit placed @ 1.3278 (Will update once the order is filled)
Stop placed @ 1.3250
Take profit target @ 1.3334
R:R = 1:2
NOTE : Please keep a room to move stop to 1.3245 or even 1.3240 in unforeseen circumstances as even we give our stop another 5 to 10 pips (hopefully we wont't need to use this) , still we can aim for 1.3340 or even 1.3350 and exit the trade with almost 1:2.
This one can only be taken on a limit entry in order to achieve the 1:2 as there is an overhead resistance @ 1.3345 - 50 & we want to get out with at least 1:2 before price tests the resistance level.
NOTE : Even the best setups can fail, so "MANAGE RISK PROPERLY"
Note
Order Filled. 11/26/2019
Note
Please move Stops to 1.3245
Price might test the 4 hourly trend line.
Note
Still sitting in the trade and waiting for the price to activate the setup traded. Stops below the low of the fake out bar traded.
Trade closed: stop reached
Stopped out of this one & this trade told us in a very good way about even the best setups can end up being losers : Below were the factors of confluence behind this trade idea and still the setup failed
1. Daily dominant uptrend ( If your idea in is line with the daily dominant trend , then the trend itself is one of the confluent factor)
2. Price action setup formed from the value area within an uptrend.
3. EMA slope confirming a strong up-trend and momentum
4. A well formed pin bar protruding from the surrounding price action & faking out the inside bar setup by rejecting lower prices.
5. R:R = 1:2 available.
SO, Money management is always the key.
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