Pounce Bounce
After falling 3% since March 24th, USDCAD found a bottom on Tuesday and has since built on a 30min uptrend line.
Client position indicates 59% Long vs 41% Short interest, with total trades heavily skewed in favour of the longs, representing 80% off open lots. Since this recent bounce started, both sides average return turned negative with shorts dropping to -0.7%.
A 50% retracement of the 3% move would take us into the 1.36000 range, but there are many headwinds for the Dollar currently so any bullish movement may require a softer CAD. Will todays Canadian Employment Change provide the catalyst for a further move higher? or will this become a small relief rally in a bigger move downwards? Forecast is for 10.2k on a prior of 21.8k meaning the expectation is for a slowing on February's figure.
Finally we have Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow, releasing during a National Holiday here in the UK. Personally I'm planning on a half day to monitor the news so will other traders be doing the same? Fireworks could still happen.
- Client Positions -
- LONG
Long Trades: 72
Avg Trade Return: -1.3%
Winning Trades: 54
Losing Trades: 168
- SHORT
Short Trades: 51
Avg Trade Return: -0.7%
Winning Trades: 43
Losing Trades: 57
Client position indicates 59% Long vs 41% Short interest, with total trades heavily skewed in favour of the longs, representing 80% off open lots. Since this recent bounce started, both sides average return turned negative with shorts dropping to -0.7%.
A 50% retracement of the 3% move would take us into the 1.36000 range, but there are many headwinds for the Dollar currently so any bullish movement may require a softer CAD. Will todays Canadian Employment Change provide the catalyst for a further move higher? or will this become a small relief rally in a bigger move downwards? Forecast is for 10.2k on a prior of 21.8k meaning the expectation is for a slowing on February's figure.
Finally we have Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow, releasing during a National Holiday here in the UK. Personally I'm planning on a half day to monitor the news so will other traders be doing the same? Fireworks could still happen.
- Client Positions -
- LONG
Long Trades: 72
Avg Trade Return: -1.3%
Winning Trades: 54
Losing Trades: 168
- SHORT
Short Trades: 51
Avg Trade Return: -0.7%
Winning Trades: 43
Losing Trades: 57
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