Long

Updated
USDCAD 0.07% long at market price (ask 1.3068)
Take profit: 1.3360
Protective stop: 1.2930
Risk Ratio (RR): 1: 2.0 (approx.)
Estimated duration: 14 days

Relevant as long as USDCAD 0.07% is below 1.3100

Note: The potential drawdown is a re-test of 1.2965. There are 2 support levels within a near proximity in USDCAD 0.07% , the first support level has contained the weakness.

We layered the protective stop below the latter support, hence the fairly large distance from the market.

Based on USDCAD 0.07% daily chart it may suggest some struggle in the NAFTA negotiations. We are heavily relying on bullish spikes in USDCAD 0.07% . We marked the key resistance levels on the daily chart , should they hold if tested we may exit the trade.

The most recent CAD strength has been triggered by reports Canada is willing to negotiate its dairy market with the US, which is surprising as the Canadian Prime Minister said the dairy is not negotiable.

The dip may provide us with an entry, we will require a daily close as the entry may be invalidated depending on the closing price.

Most of the activity is taking place in crude oil -2.46% , posting firm gains in today's session. It has been suggested that the US has informed countries that buy Iranian crude oil -2.46% to seek other sources as the US sanctions will kick-in in November.

Aside CAD it has been reported that a brexit plan may be presented next week where a deal is expected to be made in November. It may not necessarily suggest moderate gains will take place in GBP pairs and crosses.
Trade active
Aside the US PPI, reports that the US reached out to China to renegotiate improved the sentiment in global markets. As a result USD weakened against a basket of currencies.

The volatility in EURUSD that was seen prior to the US PPI was triggered by reports the ECB may cut the growth forecast in the upcoming monetary policy meeting (due to take place tomorrow).

Due to the US PPI the CPI (due tomorrow) may trigger some volatility across USD pairs and crosses. Should USDCAD succeed in closing above 1.3020 it may pave the way for stronger gains. We are uncertain the weakness has ended until 1.2965 is successfully tested.

We may have a short entry in GBPAUD, we require some corrective gains within the next 24 hours in order to considering entering. If the corrective gains do materialize we may initiate the trade without waiting for the daily close.
Trade active
USDCAD was unable to break above 1.3020, which lead to the recent weakness. CBT hiked rated in its monetary policy
Trade active
The dip below 1.2965 triggered stops, we were fairly close to the market before the recent corrective gains took place.

Due to the dip we must have greater distance from the daily low. We are not keen on shifting stops as we would rather incur the loss but we have little choice in the matter.

We are shifting USDCAD protective stop to 1.2904.

AUDCHF is soaking most of the current drawdown in USDCAD at the time of this writing. Canada CPI (due Friday) is now the key figure for USDCAD.
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