USD/CAD Bullish Trend Hinges on ISM Data
The current USD/CAD outlook remains cautiously bullish, but the upcoming ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data will play a critical role in shaping the pair's next move.
Positive Factors for USD/CAD:
Strong US Data: The recent ISM Manufacturing PMI was strong, indicating resilience in the US economy. If the Non-Manufacturing PMI also shows growth, particularly in the services sector (a large part of the US economy), it would further strengthen the USD, pushing USD/CAD higher.
Hawkish Fed Outlook: The Federal Reserve has indicated it may keep rates elevated for a longer period if inflation remains a concern. Any robust economic data like a positive ISM print would reinforce this outlook, making USD more attractive to investors and pushing USD/CAD upwards
Potential for a Bearish Turn (Bullish for CAD):
Weaker ADP Employment Report: The ADP Employment report showed weaker-than-expected job growth, which could signal a slowdown in the US labor market. If the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data follows a similar pattern with weaker-than-expected numbers, it may lead to a bearish correction in USD. A softer labor market will reduce the pressure on the Fed to keep rates high, weakening the USD.
Oil Prices: CAD is closely linked to oil prices, and any upward movement in oil can strengthen the Canadian dollar. If ISM data disappoints and leads to a weaker USD, combined with rising oil prices, USD/CAD could see more downside.
What's Next ?
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While the current technical and fundamental indicators lean toward a bullish trend for USD/CAD, the upcoming ISM Non-Manufacturing data will be crucial. If the data surprises to the downside, it could trigger a bearish USD correction, allowing CAD to gain strength. On the flip side, strong ISM data would likely reinforce the bullish USD/CAD trend. Traders should be prepared for volatility based on this key economic release.
Positive Factors for USD/CAD:
Strong US Data: The recent ISM Manufacturing PMI was strong, indicating resilience in the US economy. If the Non-Manufacturing PMI also shows growth, particularly in the services sector (a large part of the US economy), it would further strengthen the USD, pushing USD/CAD higher.
Hawkish Fed Outlook: The Federal Reserve has indicated it may keep rates elevated for a longer period if inflation remains a concern. Any robust economic data like a positive ISM print would reinforce this outlook, making USD more attractive to investors and pushing USD/CAD upwards
Potential for a Bearish Turn (Bullish for CAD):
Weaker ADP Employment Report: The ADP Employment report showed weaker-than-expected job growth, which could signal a slowdown in the US labor market. If the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data follows a similar pattern with weaker-than-expected numbers, it may lead to a bearish correction in USD. A softer labor market will reduce the pressure on the Fed to keep rates high, weakening the USD.
Oil Prices: CAD is closely linked to oil prices, and any upward movement in oil can strengthen the Canadian dollar. If ISM data disappoints and leads to a weaker USD, combined with rising oil prices, USD/CAD could see more downside.
What's Next ?
-----------------
While the current technical and fundamental indicators lean toward a bullish trend for USD/CAD, the upcoming ISM Non-Manufacturing data will be crucial. If the data surprises to the downside, it could trigger a bearish USD correction, allowing CAD to gain strength. On the flip side, strong ISM data would likely reinforce the bullish USD/CAD trend. Traders should be prepared for volatility based on this key economic release.
Trade closed: target reached
USD/CAD Expect Level Reached @1.35739 ✅✅✅
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