Will USD/CAD Stay Bullish Despite Paused U.S Tariff Plan?

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From a technical analysis perspective, the overall trend for the USDCAD currency pair remains bullish, as indicated by higher highs and higher lows supported by the upward trendline. The bullish trend began in late September with the formation of a double bottom, signaling strong bullish momentum.

Recently, price action successfully broke through the oscillating channel to the upside, accompanied by a gap up and significant bullish momentum, primarily driven by Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Canada.

However, the pair underwent a bullish correction from its highest level in over two years shortly, retesting the previously broken structure and currently moving upward. Moreover, Prime Minister of Canada Trudeau also announced an impending suspension of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods for at least 30 days. This postponed the immediate concern of any potential trade disruption, which had weighed the Canadian dollar down in the wake of heightened fears of waning demand for Canadian exports and dry foreign exchange inflows.

Overall, if the daily candle manages to close above 1.4465, which serves as the upper boundary of the oscillating channel, there is a high probability that the bullish movement will continue. However, if the candle fails to close above the 1.4465 level or breaks below the trendline, bearish momentum could potentially push the price downward, retesting the lower boundary of the oscillating zone.

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