JPM G10 FX Spot Desk: USDCHF

CHF at the mercy of broader risk sentiment and the dollar, with both EURCHF and USDCHF chopping around in recent ranges. There are a lot of reasons to be bearish CHF, given the dovish SNB, it is one of the lowest yielding currencies, Swiss pharma could be in the firing line for tariffs, fiscal impetus in Germany and decent sized CHF longs out there, however CHF is struggling to sell off given the safe haven bid it is receiving into “Liberation day”. Therefore I have turned my focus to CHFJPY as that should partly remove some of the safe haven cross currents, and used the rally though the 100 day to sell. CHFJPY should ultimately be a lot lower given long term yield differentials, however for now looking to hold against 172 and would ideally see the pair closer to 165. In terms of flow we saw more CHF buying from RM, although also from HFs too. Interestingly though systematics the last two days have been sellers of CHF after a decent period of buying this month.

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