USDCHF Long
Updated
I've started a tactital long trade as I expect the pair to benefit from good USD data. At this moment the pair is cheap, we are sitting at the 2015 lows.
Moreover, I think the fundamental backdrop for the CHF remains bearish given the risk of a 50bp rate cut.
US data is expected to continue to show signs of resilience. The USD has higher yields, CHF has lower yields, therefore if any is to benefit from good data, it would be the USD.
Another reason is my belief in thinking that the Swiss National Bank is willing to endure some currency weakening from the current levels.
Chart wise, things are not too clean as I usually like. However, this is essentially a fundamental play, i don't mind entering within this consolidation block.
There is plenty of US data in the upcoming days and we are sitting on a solid base.
Moreover, I think the fundamental backdrop for the CHF remains bearish given the risk of a 50bp rate cut.
US data is expected to continue to show signs of resilience. The USD has higher yields, CHF has lower yields, therefore if any is to benefit from good data, it would be the USD.
Another reason is my belief in thinking that the Swiss National Bank is willing to endure some currency weakening from the current levels.
Chart wise, things are not too clean as I usually like. However, this is essentially a fundamental play, i don't mind entering within this consolidation block.
There is plenty of US data in the upcoming days and we are sitting on a solid base.
Trade closed: stop reached
Surprisingly bad US jobs data forced closure. bls.gov/news.release/jolts.htm
The recent data is likely to exacerbate current concerns around the path of US growth and thus the increased chance for a 50bp rate cut in September. From here we see risks to the USD as skewed to the downside following today’s report. While domestic considerations remain bearish CHF, the overall case is now a source of support in the near-term.
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