1. Fundamental Economic State:
United States:
GDP Growth: Slowing with recent figures showing an annualized growth rate of 1.1%.
Employment Data: Unemployment rate at 3.4%, indicating a tight labor market.
Inflation Rate: Moderating at 4.9%, following aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Retail Sales: Robust, supported by strong job growth and wage increases.
Trade Balance: Significant trade deficit influenced by high import levels.
Consumer Confidence: Improving due to a strong labor market and easing inflation.
Switzerland:
GDP Growth: Modest, reflecting the stability and high-income status of the economy.
Employment Data: Unemployment rate is low at around 2.2%, indicating near full employment.
Inflation Rate: Relatively low at 1.75%, which is typical for the Swiss economy.
Retail Sales: Steady, driven by high consumer confidence and purchasing power.
Trade Balance: Switzerland maintains a trade surplus, bolstered by high-value exports like pharmaceuticals and machinery.
Consumer Confidence: High, reflecting economic stability and robust labor market conditions.
2. Daily Percentage Changes:
Over the past month, USD/CHF has shown moderate variability:
May 27, 2024: The pair was trading at 0.9135, showing a slight decrease from the previous day.
May 10, 2024: The rate was around 0.905, impacted by US inflation data and Fed policy statements.
April 29, 2024: The rate hovered around 0.908, reflecting mixed economic data from both countries.
3. News Analysis:
Recent events impacting USD/CHF include:
Fed Interest Rate Decisions: The Fed's expected pause in rate hikes has moderated upward pressure on the USD.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy: The SNB’s cautious approach to rate hikes supports the CHF.
Geopolitical Tensions: Global uncertainties have influenced risk sentiment, affecting both currencies.
4. Interest Rate Expectations:
Federal Reserve: Expected to pause further rate hikes after a series of increases.
Swiss National Bank: Likely to maintain a cautious stance on rate hikes given the low inflation environment.
5. Commodity Prices and Market Sentiment:
Market Sentiment: Risk sentiment has been fluctuating, with periods of risk aversion generally supporting the CHF as a safe-haven currency.
Commodity Prices: Not a major direct influence on USD/CHF, but broader economic impacts from commodity prices can affect market sentiment.
6. Projection Figures:
Based on current fundamentals and market conditions, the short-term target for USD/CHF is 0.9200, considering support from the Fed’s likely pause in rate hikes. Long-term projections are more uncertain, but a modest target could be around 0.9300, assuming continued economic resilience in the US and stable conditions in Switzerland.
7. Trade Ideas:
Short-Term: Go LONG on USD/CHF to a target of 0.9200, supported by potential stabilization in US economic data and the Fed’s rate policy.
Long-Term: Maintain a LONG position with a target of 0.9300, contingent on sustained economic growth in the US and a stable policy environment from the SNB.
United States:
GDP Growth: Slowing with recent figures showing an annualized growth rate of 1.1%.
Employment Data: Unemployment rate at 3.4%, indicating a tight labor market.
Inflation Rate: Moderating at 4.9%, following aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Retail Sales: Robust, supported by strong job growth and wage increases.
Trade Balance: Significant trade deficit influenced by high import levels.
Consumer Confidence: Improving due to a strong labor market and easing inflation.
Switzerland:
GDP Growth: Modest, reflecting the stability and high-income status of the economy.
Employment Data: Unemployment rate is low at around 2.2%, indicating near full employment.
Inflation Rate: Relatively low at 1.75%, which is typical for the Swiss economy.
Retail Sales: Steady, driven by high consumer confidence and purchasing power.
Trade Balance: Switzerland maintains a trade surplus, bolstered by high-value exports like pharmaceuticals and machinery.
Consumer Confidence: High, reflecting economic stability and robust labor market conditions.
2. Daily Percentage Changes:
Over the past month, USD/CHF has shown moderate variability:
May 27, 2024: The pair was trading at 0.9135, showing a slight decrease from the previous day.
May 10, 2024: The rate was around 0.905, impacted by US inflation data and Fed policy statements.
April 29, 2024: The rate hovered around 0.908, reflecting mixed economic data from both countries.
3. News Analysis:
Recent events impacting USD/CHF include:
Fed Interest Rate Decisions: The Fed's expected pause in rate hikes has moderated upward pressure on the USD.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy: The SNB’s cautious approach to rate hikes supports the CHF.
Geopolitical Tensions: Global uncertainties have influenced risk sentiment, affecting both currencies.
4. Interest Rate Expectations:
Federal Reserve: Expected to pause further rate hikes after a series of increases.
Swiss National Bank: Likely to maintain a cautious stance on rate hikes given the low inflation environment.
5. Commodity Prices and Market Sentiment:
Market Sentiment: Risk sentiment has been fluctuating, with periods of risk aversion generally supporting the CHF as a safe-haven currency.
Commodity Prices: Not a major direct influence on USD/CHF, but broader economic impacts from commodity prices can affect market sentiment.
6. Projection Figures:
Based on current fundamentals and market conditions, the short-term target for USD/CHF is 0.9200, considering support from the Fed’s likely pause in rate hikes. Long-term projections are more uncertain, but a modest target could be around 0.9300, assuming continued economic resilience in the US and stable conditions in Switzerland.
7. Trade Ideas:
Short-Term: Go LONG on USD/CHF to a target of 0.9200, supported by potential stabilization in US economic data and the Fed’s rate policy.
Long-Term: Maintain a LONG position with a target of 0.9300, contingent on sustained economic growth in the US and a stable policy environment from the SNB.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.