JPM G10 FX Spot Desk: USDCHF

23
A dial up in tariff rhetoric, briefly taking EURCHF below the 0.9500/20 support zone. A small recovery this morning though, and perhaps the market is struggling to believe Trump given the continued flip/flop on tariffs and lack of clear plan. Last night was aggressive, with blanket tariffs on autos but the EU also expecting 20% tariffs (my base case was 10%). Thus struggle to see EURCHF recover too much from here in the short term, given the uncertainty into 2ndApril. Medium term I think EURCHF is a buy on dips given the German fiscal impetus, however there are too many headwinds for that trade right now. Flow wise we remain seeing RM buying of CHF yesterday, and some small CHF buying by HFs on the headlines.

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