USDCHF is breaking out from a multi-week descending channel.
Structure shows a potential trend reversal from the June 12th low.
First bullish leg may target the 23.6% Fib level at 0.8266, followed by an extended move toward 0.8355.
Key resistance: 0.8266 and 0.8355 (Fib levels)
Stop loss: around 0.8093–0.8056 zone (previous support and breakout base)
Structure Bias: Bullish breakout after prolonged downtrend – confirmation depends on sustained move above 0.8200
📊 Current Bias: Cautiously Bullish
🧩 Key Fundamentals Driving USDCHF
USD Side (Mildly Bearish to Neutral):
FOMC held rates, Dot Plot showed only one cut expected for 2025, but Powell’s tone was less hawkish.
US Retail Sales soft, and PPI/CPI showed signs of inflation cooling.
Recent risk-off sentiment (Middle East, oil spikes, equity volatility) supports the USD.
Trump commentary and 2025 election anticipation bring long-term uncertainty.
CHF Side (Strong but potentially weakening):
SNB held rates steady, with cautious tone—no urgency to hike again.
Safe-haven flows still support CHF, but waning inflation and stronger global equity market might reduce CHF appeal.
SNB has hinted at FX intervention readiness, which could weaken CHF if necessary.
⚠️ Risks That May Reverse or Accelerate Trend
False breakout risk if 0.82 fails to hold → deeper pullback toward 0.8090
Stronger CHF demand on geopolitical fear (Israel–Iran, Ukraine)
Unexpectedly weak US data this week or renewed Fed dovish talk
🗓️ Important News to Watch
US: Core PCE, GDP revision (June 27), jobless claims
CHF: Swiss CPI, SNB FX intervention chatter
Risk sentiment: Iran/Israel tensions, equity volatility, Trump Fed commentary
🏁 Which Asset Might Lead the Broader Move?
USDCHF could mirror sentiment across CHF pairs—if risk-on resumes and CHF weakens across the board (EURCHF, NZDCHF also rallying), USDCHF may accelerate higher.
Structure shows a potential trend reversal from the June 12th low.
First bullish leg may target the 23.6% Fib level at 0.8266, followed by an extended move toward 0.8355.
Key resistance: 0.8266 and 0.8355 (Fib levels)
Stop loss: around 0.8093–0.8056 zone (previous support and breakout base)
Structure Bias: Bullish breakout after prolonged downtrend – confirmation depends on sustained move above 0.8200
📊 Current Bias: Cautiously Bullish
🧩 Key Fundamentals Driving USDCHF
USD Side (Mildly Bearish to Neutral):
FOMC held rates, Dot Plot showed only one cut expected for 2025, but Powell’s tone was less hawkish.
US Retail Sales soft, and PPI/CPI showed signs of inflation cooling.
Recent risk-off sentiment (Middle East, oil spikes, equity volatility) supports the USD.
Trump commentary and 2025 election anticipation bring long-term uncertainty.
CHF Side (Strong but potentially weakening):
SNB held rates steady, with cautious tone—no urgency to hike again.
Safe-haven flows still support CHF, but waning inflation and stronger global equity market might reduce CHF appeal.
SNB has hinted at FX intervention readiness, which could weaken CHF if necessary.
⚠️ Risks That May Reverse or Accelerate Trend
False breakout risk if 0.82 fails to hold → deeper pullback toward 0.8090
Stronger CHF demand on geopolitical fear (Israel–Iran, Ukraine)
Unexpectedly weak US data this week or renewed Fed dovish talk
🗓️ Important News to Watch
US: Core PCE, GDP revision (June 27), jobless claims
CHF: Swiss CPI, SNB FX intervention chatter
Risk sentiment: Iran/Israel tensions, equity volatility, Trump Fed commentary
🏁 Which Asset Might Lead the Broader Move?
USDCHF could mirror sentiment across CHF pairs—if risk-on resumes and CHF weakens across the board (EURCHF, NZDCHF also rallying), USDCHF may accelerate higher.
Order cancelled
📉 Update – Trade Cancelled: USDCHF Failed to Confirm BreakoutThe anticipated bullish breakout setup on USDCHF is no longer valid as price failed to sustain a move above the key 0.8200 confirmation zone.
🔹 Price action stalled below confirmation level (0.8200), invalidating breakout structure
🔹 Bias neutralized – no sustained momentum to flip structure bullish
🔹 Setup cancelled pending new technical/fundamental catalysts
We'll reassess if structure changes or fresh drivers emerge from key data or SNB/Fed headlines.
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✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
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✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.